All Posts Tagged: Fed

U.S. Outlook: The labor market is hot. Is it getting too hot?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The May jobs report revealed impressive strength and breadth in U.S. job creation that blew away most economists’ expectations.

Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.Employers added 223K non-farm jobs in May — a big step up from April’s 159K gain.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 1.

Key observations:
  • If you remember only one number from today’s report, it ought to be 3.8%, which is the unemployment rate for May and the lowest in 18 years.
  • This labor market tightness is gradually moving the needle on national wage growth, too.
  • From the Fed’s perspective, we are absorbing labor market slack at an impressive pace that is not sustainable without fueling a jump in wage and price growth if it continues in the months ahead.
  • The probability of four rate hikes in 2018 would be a lot higher today if it weren’t for the downside risks in the second half of the year from an escalating trade war.

 

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Global economy firing on all cylinders

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing growth in several major economies around the world.

The Fed no longer has the crutch of a moribund global economy to blame for not embarking on monetary policy normalization.

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Instant Analysis: ‘Doves cry’ in the aftermath of the June FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup on the eagle sculpture near top of the Federal Reserve building in Washington.

The FOMC failed to blink in the face of widespread market skepticism about the Fed’s projected fed funds rate path as it increased the fed funds target range by a quarter percentage point today to between 1.0 and 1.25%.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth slips in March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing parallel declines in unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate.

While the headline number was a disappointment, the details in the report revealed underlying labor market strength and momentum.

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Instant Analysis: Fed raises rates at March meeting

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close up of the Federal Reserve building with the eagle statue

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds target rate range today by a quarter percentage point to 0.75 to 1.00% from 0.50 to 0.75%, as expected. There was one dissent in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, as Neel Kashkari preferred to maintain the existing target range for the Fed funds rate. The move […]

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