All Posts Tagged: Federal Reserve

U.S. Outlook: Senior loan officer survey results suggest caution

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve released results from the January Senior Loan Officer Survey on Bank LendingA view of British pedestrains at a road crossing, from directly above. Practices over the past three months. Given the timeliness of the survey data, the results provide an early indication of the willingness of consumers and businesses to borrow and banks to lend this year.

It’s apparent in the latest survey results that weak loan demand persists, and is broad-based across both consumers and businesses. Indeed, banks reported that demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans remained weak in the fourth quarter of 2018.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 8.

Key observations:
  •  A majority of the banks that reported weaker loan demand stated that decreases in customers’ needs to finance mergers and acquisitions and investment in plant and equipment contributed to weaker demand, as did a shift in borrowing toward other bank or nonbank sources.
  • Banks reported that lending standards tightened in the fourth quarter for numerous categories, from C&I loans to commercial real estate loans to credit card and other consumer loans.
  • The deteriorating lending environment anticipated this year is consistent with our forecast for slower GDP, consumer spending, and business investment growth this year.

Read my full report.

C and I Loan Demand

 

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our 2019 outlook

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

There is greater uncertainty heading into 2019 than in many previous years.

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U.S. Outlook: Moderate job growth continues in January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

Will moderate growth continue? Scott Anderson analyzes the economic data in this week’s U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: Estimating the economic impact of the market decline

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Economic crisis - Stock market graphs and charts - Financial and business background

The real world economic impacts from the recent stock market carnage could be substantial. Learn more in Scott Anderson’s U.S. Outlook.

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Instant Analysis: December FOMC Minutes

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A wide-angle photo of the Federal Reserve.

Despite the quarter point Fed funds rate hike that occurred at the end of the December FOMC Meeting, the minutes of that meeting reveal the dovish tilt that was already beginning to influence the FOMC’s view of the likely extent and timing of further interest rate hikes.

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