All Posts Tagged: Federal Reserve
The payroll report for November appears to confirm the recent market narrative, and our own economic forecast, that U.S. economic growth is decelerating in the fourth quarter.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 7.Key observations:
- U.S. job growth had been averaging over 200K jobs per month so far this year, but the three-month average monthly gain has now slipped to 170K jobs.
- Initial jobless claims have been rising gradually now since hitting a cyclical low on Sept. 14.
- The monthly pace of job gains is still well above the Fed’s estimates that only 60K to 100K jobs per month are needed today to hold the U.S. unemployment rate steady.
- It is unlikely that today’s payroll report will deter the FOMC from hiking the fed funds rate again in December. And I still think it’s too early to rule out two more rate hikes from the Fed next year.
Equities jumped over a percent on Monday after President Trump tweeted that China would remove tariffs on U.S.-made cars, signaling headway in the tense U.S.-China trade dispute.Read More ›
Jerome Powell’s lunch presentation and speech Wednesday held those two small but significant words, “just below.”Read More ›
The same stocks which were the darlings for so much of this historic rally have faltered.Read More ›
Investors are working overtime to divine not only the Federal Reserve’s next move, but how many more rate hikes we are likely to see in this cycle.Read More ›