All Posts Tagged: Federal Reserve

U.S. Outlook: Retail sales shine in robust holiday shopping season

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

December retail sales came in at a robust pace, and November sales were revised higher, cementing a decent increase in real consumer spending for the fourth quarter.

A woman looking at her phone, while shoppingFrom a year ago, December retail sales increased 5.4%.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 12.

Key observations:

  • Over the past three months, retail sales have increased at an accelerated 11.3% annualized pace.
  • We are revising our Q4 real GDP estimate up to a 2.7% annualized pace.
  • Building material and furniture store sales were almost 10% above year-ago levels, largely due to hurricane rebuilding and a robust housing market.
  • The increase in core consumer inflation helped lift the year-on-year increase in core CPI to 1.8% from 1.7%. These are marginally better numbers on consumer inflation, but are they as strong as the FOMC would like to see at this stage of the economic cycle?

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Well that was taxing

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Line of various professional people waiting outside an office.

The benefits should be felt across the spectrum for tax payers, with some ultimately benefiting more than others.

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U.S. Outlook: What does 2018 have in store for us?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rebound of Eurozone economic activity

We think 2018 will be another year of above-average U.S. GDP growth.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.

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U.S. Outlook: Tax reform reaches the finish line

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing rise of debt as percentage of US GDP

This is largely a corporate tax cut bill with temporary personal income tax relief mixed in.

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