All Posts Tagged: Federal Reserve

U.S. Outlook: Emerging markets turmoil returns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Emerging markets turmoil returned with a vengeance this week, and it’s more than a simple “taper tantrum” this time around.

Flea market scene in Argentina, with lots of shoppers milling about.Years of strong portfolio inflows into emerging markets may finally be coming home to roost.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 17.

Key observations:
  • Emerging markets were a logical destination for investors searching for yield in a low-interest-rate world.
  • Economic and fiscal policies in countries like Turkey have made their economies especially vulnerable to a classic balance of payments/currency crisis.
  • The emerging markets financial contagion to date has not yet reached a level that will materially hurt the U.S. economy over the near term or deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again in September.
  • But the contagion could develop into another important headwind for the U.S. and global economies in 2019.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Investors go cold Turkey

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Portside at Istanbul, with ships near the coast and large, historic mosue visible in the distance.

The Turkish lira is one of the worst-performing currencies over the last two years, declining over 40% during the period, according to Bloomberg data.

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Investment Insights: Earnings are ripe and Tesla smells musky

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Black Tesla Model S electric car at a Tesla supercharger changing station.

Stock markets are nearing all-time highs again as the surge in earnings continues.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth cools in July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Sun-drenched shot of workers hurrying across a bridge at the start of the workday.

Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.

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Investment Insights: GDP, some like it hot!

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Crowd sitting in urban public park at lunchtime in the sun.

Continued optimism in earnings and a sizzling GDP growth number in the U.S. have urged domestic stock markets even higher.

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