All Posts Tagged: Federal Reserve

U.S. Outlook: Keeping next week’s Q1 GDP report in perspective

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Over the last three quarters, the U.S. economy and real GDP have been on a sprint, the latter rising at an annual average 3.06%.

Closeup of a woman's arm using gas pump to fill her silver car on a cold day.So what do we expect to see from next week’s advanced Q1 GDP report when it is released on Friday?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 20.

Key observations:

  • Since WTI oil prices bottomed in January 2016 at $39.56 per barrel and then icnreased more than 70% off those lows through yesterday, U.S. GDP growth has rebounded to a respectable 2.6% year-on-year.
  • The U.S. economy has finally moved back to its potential GDP level as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, raising the risk that further above-trend growth may only fuel rising inflationary pressures from here.
  • We are forecasting a below-consensus 1.7% annualized increase in GDP for the first quarter, down from 2.9% in Q4.
  • Growth is expected to rebound back to 2.6% in the second quarter as consumer spending bounces back and government spending ramps up.

Read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q1 2018 report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Fortress wall in China with decorative 3-story structure on top.

Volatility, the word that strikes fear into the minds of nervous investors, returned in the first quarter of 2018.

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U.S. Outlook: Have U.S. and global growth already peaked?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing economic surprise index in decline

I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Facade of the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC on a sunny day.

The FOMC raised the fed funds target rate range another quarter percentage point today to between 1.50% and 1.75% and maintained its median forecast for three quarter-point rate hikes by the end of 2018 and 2019.

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U.S. Outlook: Preview of next week’s FOMC meeting

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing Fed funds rate hike projections into 2019

The Fed funds future market is currently putting a 99.3% probability on another rate hike on Wednesday.

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