All Posts Tagged: Federal Reserve

U.S. Outlook: Strong consumer-led rebound in Q2 GDP anticipated

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Robust real GDP growth above 4% is expected in the second quarter of this year, driven by a sharp rebound in real consumer spending.

Young, smiling man wearing an apron and holding a pen while sitting at a table and talking to a business woman.However, recently released data suggest that spending may cool a bit in the quarters ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 15.

Key observations:

  • Home price growth uncertainty increased to its highest level in a year, suggesting rising mortgage rates are becoming a bigger concern for consumers.
  • The outlook for credit, which supports consumer spending, also worsened in May.
  • The data revealed that 12.8% of respondents expect their financial situation to worsen over the next year, up from 11% in April.
  • The Fed is expected to raise interest rates a total of four times this year and once more next year, all in 25-basis-point increments.

Read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Powell hawks, Trump balks

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Large plaza in North Korea with ceremonial flags, no people.

While this compromise with North Korea is a historic event for U.S. and international diplomacy, Trump’s stance on America’s closest allies may be a much larger issue.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC delivers on rate hike; statement and dot plot turn hawkish

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.

For now the Fed is throwing caution to the wind and is pressing ahead with steady rate hikes this year, despite growing downside risks from trade. 

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U.S. Outlook: The labor market is hot. Is it getting too hot?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The May jobs report revealed impressive strength and breadth in U.S. job creation that blew away most economists’ expectations.

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Investment Insights: What is the 800-pound hawk in financial markets?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Federal Reserve building at dusk

Investors have continued to grapple with the double-edged sword of a strengthening economy.

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