All Posts Tagged: fiscal policy

U.S. Outlook: Putting Fed tightening cycles under the microscope

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Investors are working overtime to divine not only the Federal Reserve’s next move, but how many more rate hikes we are likely to see in this cycle.

Exterior of the Federal Reserve in winter, with bare trees with loads of branches slightly obscure the building.If you believe the Fed’s own forecast, there will be five rate hikes between now and the end of 2020.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 16.

Key observations:
  • My forecast: We are expecting three more quarter-point rate hikes by the middle of 2019 and then a pause.
  • The Fed’s record of achieving a soft landing for the economy after an interest-rate tightening cycle isn’t all that good.
  • We have the FOMC starting to cut interest rates again by 2020 — a full nine months after the committee pauses.

Read my full report.

NOTE: There will not be a U.S. Outlook next week; it will return on Nov. 30. Happy Thanksgiving!

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Markets face action-packed holiday season

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Snowy streets scene with British cottages, with a red telephone booth covered some snow.

There are many risks to contend with — besides the two dominating the most recent news headlines.

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Investment Insights: China’s new Silk Road and a European Union makeover

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
View from harbor of Shanghai

The trade relationship between the U.S. and its largest trading partner is being reshaped.

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Investment Insights: 2016 in the rear-view mirror

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Closeup of "2016" written in sand, with an incoming ripple of water about to wash over it.

Major asset classes posted stellar results for investors in 2016, with the vast majority ending in positive territory.

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U.S. Outlook: Which Trump policies come first?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
American flag hanging in front of a government building with word "Trade" visible.

The U.S. election has thrown conventional wisdom on the economic outlook into a state of heightened uncertainty that is not likely to ease anytime soon.

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