All Posts Tagged: FOMC

U.S. Outlook: Retail sales shine in robust holiday shopping season

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

December retail sales came in at a robust pace, and November sales were revised higher, cementing a decent increase in real consumer spending for the fourth quarter.

A woman looking at her phone, while shoppingFrom a year ago, December retail sales increased 5.4%.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 12.

Key observations:

  • Over the past three months, retail sales have increased at an accelerated 11.3% annualized pace.
  • We are revising our Q4 real GDP estimate up to a 2.7% annualized pace.
  • Building material and furniture store sales were almost 10% above year-ago levels, largely due to hurricane rebuilding and a robust housing market.
  • The increase in core consumer inflation helped lift the year-on-year increase in core CPI to 1.8% from 1.7%. These are marginally better numbers on consumer inflation, but are they as strong as the FOMC would like to see at this stage of the economic cycle?

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: What does 2018 have in store for us?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rebound of Eurozone economic activity

We think 2018 will be another year of above-average U.S. GDP growth.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decides to raise interest rates again

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Exterior of the Federal Reserve in winter, with bare trees with loads of branches slightly obscure the building.

The December FOMC decision to raise the Fed funds target rate another quarter percentage point reveals a chink developing in the armor of a unified FOMC. 

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U.S. Outlook: What we expect from the Federal Reserve next week

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise in total net worth of households.

Amid much anticipation, we expect the FOMC to vote next Wednesday to raise the Fed funds target rate range another quarter percentage point to between 1.25% and 1.50%.

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