U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April
Net new job creation is cooling off. Nonfarm payroll growth at 164K in April came in a bit short of analysts’ expectations for the second month in a row.
Should we be worried about this deceleration in job growth?
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 4.
Key observations:- Economists, including at the Fed, have noted that monthly job growth above 200K jobs per month was unsustainable, given our sluggish labor force growth.
- The unemployment rate of 3.9% in April is the lowest unemployment rate in this country since December 2000.
- Why we aren’t seeing serious wage and inflation pressures from such a low unemployment rate is a puzzle that’s likely to consume the Fed staff in the weeks ahead.
- The cool-down in average monthly job growth makes me more comfortable with my forecast for just three interest rate hikes this year.
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Instant Analysis: FOMC holds interest rates steady in May, signals June increase
The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate steady at the May FOMC meeting, as was widely expected.
Read More ›Instant Analysis: The FOMC decision for May
We see nothing in the statement today that would dissuade the FOMC from raising the fed funds rate again in June.
Read More ›U.S. Outlook: Job growth slips in March
While the headline number was a disappointment, the details in the report revealed underlying labor market strength and momentum.
Read More ›Instant Analysis: Fed raises rates at March meeting
The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds target rate range today by a quarter percentage point to 0.75 to 1.00% from 0.50 to 0.75%, as expected. There was one dissent in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, as Neel Kashkari preferred to maintain the existing target range for the Fed funds rate. The move […]
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