All Posts Tagged: GDP growth

U.S. Outlook: The hard vs. soft data conundrum revisited

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic indicators have been throwing off mixed messages.

Graph comparing hard and soft data of US Economic Surprise Index

In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 14.

Key observations:

  • It may be too late to expect much of any bounce in the hard data indexes from the burst of confidence since November.
  • Confidence measures could correct lower in the months ahead rather than for the U.S. economy to see a strong acceleration in growth.
  • Our GDP growth estimate for Q1 slipped below 1.0% annualized this week.
  • We are currently forecasting a below-consensus rebound in GDP growth in Q2 of 2.4%.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Solid GDP growth in Q3; what’s in store for Q4?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing percentage increase in export of total goods

A decent GDP growth performance for the United States should keep the FOMC on track for a December rate hike.

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U.S. Outlook: After weak growth, what’s next for 2016?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing fluctuation in trade balance of goods between January 2014 and May 2016

After slow growth in the first half of the year, what’s in store for real GDP in the quarters ahead?

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Instant Analysis: August jobs report disappoints

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Employees analyzing data in a business environment

There’s reason to look at this disappointing Labor Department report with a fair amount of skepticism.

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U.S. Outlook: What the employment report is telling us

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph of the unemployment rate.

My main focus in this week’s U.S. Outlook is the September employment report and what it could mean for our country’s economic future. Below is a brief summary followed by a link to the full report, delivered on Oct. 25, 2013. Key observations: There was little to cheer about in September’s jobs numbers, and there […]

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