U.S. economic indicators have been throwing off mixed messages.
In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 14.
- It may be too late to expect much of any bounce in the hard data indexes from the burst of confidence since November.
- Confidence measures could correct lower in the months ahead rather than for the U.S. economy to see a strong acceleration in growth.
- Our GDP growth estimate for Q1 slipped below 1.0% annualized this week.
- We are currently forecasting a below-consensus rebound in GDP growth in Q2 of 2.4%.
A decent GDP growth performance for the United States should keep the FOMC on track for a December rate hike.Read More ›
After slow growth in the first half of the year, what’s in store for real GDP in the quarters ahead?Read More ›
There’s reason to look at this disappointing Labor Department report with a fair amount of skepticism.Read More ›
My main focus in this week’s U.S. Outlook is the September employment report and what it could mean for our country’s economic future. Below is a brief summary followed by a link to the full report, delivered on Oct. 25, 2013. Key observations: There was little to cheer about in September’s jobs numbers, and there […]Read More ›