All Posts Tagged: GDP
The U.S. consumer is often the most important piece of our economic puzzle, making the difference between a solid economic expansion and a mediocre one.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 9.Key observations:
- Since 1947 the consumer spending share of GDP has ranged from a low 58.9% in 1967 to 68.5% in 2011. The 2017 share was just below the 2011 all-time high at 68.4%.
- Since May the gap between consumer spending growth and income growth has widened over time.
- The consumer savings rate has declined for seven straight months since reaching 7.4% in February.
- Our forecast is for annualized real consumer spending growth to decelerate from the current white-hot pace of 4.0% to 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
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Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining.Read More ›
Much of the recently released U.S. housing market data has been on the weaker side.Read More ›
A September rate hike is a near certainty at the next FOMC meeting.Read More ›
GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.Read More ›