All Posts Tagged: GDP

U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Daily economic indicators continue to show the second-quarter U.S. economic rebound remains on track. However, beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.

Graph showing rise of President Trump's disapproval rating.The political drama in Washington, D.C.,intensified this week and has potentially damaged and/or delayed the Trump administration’s business-friendly economic policy agenda.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 19.

Key observations:

  • President Trump’s ratings are once again revisiting their lowest levels since he took office.
  • Republican lawmakers may be more willing to distance themselves from elements of the president’s tax reform and budget plan — for example, whether to make the tax cuts revenue-neutral or not.
  • Measures of stock market volatility and credit risk show a level of complacency that seems oddly out of place with the dire political headlines of the day.
  • This week’s events call our GDP 2018 forecast into question and tip the balance of risks more toward the downside than the upside in my view.

Click here to read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our April report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Global stock markets churned during the month of April alongside the ebb and flow of geopolitical risks around the world.

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U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

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U.S. Outlook: Why the Fed will look past weak Q1 GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in business spending growth

U.S. GDP growth sputtered in the first quarter. This was the worst performance from the U.S. economy since the first quarter of 2014.

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U.S. Outlook: No sign of an April bounce so far

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent drop in Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.

Preliminary signs are that weaker-than-expected data visible in March may be carrying over into April.

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