All Posts Tagged: GDP

U.S. Outlook: How slow can the housing market go?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Much of the recently released U.S. housing market data has been on the weaker side.

Housing being built on a small hill, with wooden scaffolding surrounding much of it. Lovely sunrise is shining above the horizon.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 24.

Key observations:
  • After peaking at 6.7% of GDP in the third quarter of 2006, residential investment as a share of GDP declined for 14 successive quarters, reaching a nadir of 2.4% in the third quarter of 2010.
  • Despite the recent weakness in the housing data, home prices continue to rise, largely due to low inventory.
  • Even though existing home prices have increased year-over-year for 77 consecutive months, prices relative to income are still nowhere near the levels seen just prior to the last housing downturn.
  • Our forecast calls for a continued gradual slowdown in the housing market, which is typical for the late state of an economic expansion.

Read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: August FOMC meeting minutes

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Facade of the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC on a sunny day.

A September rate hike is a near certainty at the next FOMC meeting. 

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U.S. Outlook: Economy runs hot in the second quarter

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.

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Investment Insights: Is the grand finale coming?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Multiple fireworks exploding into colorful bursts in a night sky over a California coastal town.

What many are volleying back and forth is whether the financial market is just searching for footing before another leg upward or if this may be a last hurrah before a more portentous drop.

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U.S. Outlook: Q2 GDP is solid; trade a growing downside risk

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A container ship in the harbor in Asia

Now that we have the final Q1 GDP data in hand, what does it mean for the U.S. outlook going forward?

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