All Posts Tagged: GDP

U.S. Outlook: Fed gambles on inflation’s return

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Mixed messages continue to be thrown off by the U.S. economy, and this week we can add retail sales and consumer inflation for May to the list of economic indicators that continue to disappoint analysts’ expectations.

Chart showing sales growth/loss by category, compared to a year ago.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 16.

Key observations:

  • The three-month moving average on retail sales is running at about half the pace seen over the past 12 months.
  • Inflation is showing signs of moderation after a sharp rebound in the first quarter.
  • The combination of a somewhat less dovish Fed and diminishing growth and inflation expectations is compressing the Treasury yield to an extent that rivals the lows of the expansion.
  • Bank credit has already tightened for CRE and auto lending, while loan demand has weakened pretty much across all segments.

Click here to read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: ‘Doves cry’ in the aftermath of the June FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup on the eagle sculpture near top of the Federal Reserve building in Washington.

The FOMC failed to blink in the face of widespread market skepticism about the Fed’s projected fed funds rate path as it increased the fed funds target range by a quarter percentage point today to between 1.0 and 1.25%.

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U.S. Outlook: Why 3.0% GDP growth looks like a long shot

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent dip in labor force growth.

President Trump talks about returning the United States to 3.0% GDP growth or better, and it’s baked into his FY 2018 budget plan to reach that milestone by 2021.

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U.S. Outlook: Job creation disappoints in May

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing month-over-month trends in US job creation.

The 138,000 jobs created last month left behind some confusion and uneasiness about the true underlying strength of the U.S. labor market.

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U.S. Outlook: Fingers crossed, we need a bounce in GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing drop in G10 Surprise Economic INdex

The second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.

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