All Posts Tagged: GDP

U.S. Outlook: Have U.S. and global growth already peaked?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.

Graph showing economic surprise index in declineThat is not to say Q2 growth won’t accelerate from moribund Q1 rates.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 13.

Key observations:

  • Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index continues to deteriorate and turned net negative for the first time since last June.
  • The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, where industrial production has declined for three consecutive months for the first time since 2012.
  • If U.S. and global growth was about to gallop higher in the months ahead, why haven’t commodity futures prices budged?
  • The 2 year/10 year Treasury bond yield spread shrank to an expansion-low 47 basis points this week.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: What you need to know

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart that shows consumer spending trends.

Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade fight takes center stage

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing amount of U.S. steel imports, by country

I would not describe this trade dispute as a full-blown trade war at this stage, but it is certainly an opening salvo in what could become one.

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U.S. Outlook: Preview of next week’s FOMC meeting

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing Fed funds rate hike projections into 2019

The Fed funds future market is currently putting a 99.3% probability on another rate hike on Wednesday.

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Investment Insights: Powell’s plan points to prescription policy

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.

Inflation has been a stubborn topic for the central bank, but the persistently low readings are still being chalked up to transitory influences.

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