All Posts Tagged: global growth

U.S. Outlook: Have U.S. and global growth already peaked?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.

Graph showing economic surprise index in declineThat is not to say Q2 growth won’t accelerate from moribund Q1 rates.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 13.

Key observations:

  • Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index continues to deteriorate and turned net negative for the first time since last June.
  • The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, where industrial production has declined for three consecutive months for the first time since 2012.
  • If U.S. and global growth was about to gallop higher in the months ahead, why haven’t commodity futures prices budged?
  • The 2 year/10 year Treasury bond yield spread shrank to an expansion-low 47 basis points this week.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Core inflation holds firm in the third quarter

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing consumer inflation trends over 5 years.

This week the September release of the Consumer Price Index held some interesting information about the future path of inflation.

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U.S. Outlook: Fear replaces greed on Wall Street

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing upward trend in investor confidence over last several years.

The markdown of the global growth outlook for this year hit like a grenade on the stock market this week.

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