All Posts Tagged: government shutdown

U.S. Outlook: Moderate job growth continues in January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Here we are at day 35 of the federal government shutdown and economic releases are getting scarce. But next week Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYCshould be an interesting one. We get January employment data from both ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

We are expecting some deceleration in job growth from December’s blistering 312K pace, but our forecasts remain somewhat above the consensus expectations.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 25.

Key observations:
  • The drop in initial jobless claims in January to a new 49- year low is both unexpected during a month’s long federal government shutdown and a testament to the residual strength of the U.S. expansion.
  • We are forecasting a nonfarm payroll gain of 175K jobs in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and healthy monthly average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%.
  • Job growth could remain strong enough in the first half of 2019 to justify another rate hike by June.

Read my full report.

U.S. Outlook 12519 Jobless claims

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U.S. Outlook: Trimming our GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
National monuments and museums in Washington DC were closed during the U.S. governemnt shutdown in 2013.

How will the government shutdown impact our GDP forecast? Scott Anderson examines the data in his U.S. Outlook.

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Investment Insights: Politics eclipse fundamentals

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Chart showing various market returns as of 8/22/17

President Trump seems to be ready for a government shutdown if the newest spending bill does not include funds for the border wall.

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Lessons from the government shutdown: Be prepared!

Karen Mayfield
Mortgage Banking
flat, empty road heading into storm clouds in the distance.

As we learned from the government shutdown of 2013, financial hardship can strike at any time. Use these 6 tips to deal with an unexpected blow to your household income.

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U.S. Outlook: Veering away from the brink

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The impact of the government shutdown dominates this week’s U.S. Outlook Report. What could it mean for the markets and your finances? Below is a brief summary followed by a link to the full report, delivered on Oct. 18, 2013. Key observations: We estimate that the government shutdown has cut a little over 0.2 percentage […]

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