All Posts Tagged: Great Recession

U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Wage growth has been modest during the current economic expansion, despite healthy job growth that has resulted in a tight labor market.

TTeacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetableshis has puzzled economists and policy makers.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 13.

Key observations:
  • The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions, when wage growth rebounded more rapidly and sharply.
  • Theories for the weak wage growth range from outsourcing to a lack of productivity growth to the presence of shadow slack in the labor market.
  • Given the recent rise in nominal wage rigidities over the past three months through March (the latest data point available), it is unlikely that wage growth will accelerate dramatically in 2019 if this long-term historic relationship holds.


Read my full report.


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U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

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Investment Insights: On-again, off-again … swipe right already

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Upward view of the exterior of the New York Stock Exchange with a burst of sunlight coming over the top.

Geopolitical events continue to overshadow an expanding global economy that is likely starting to reach a peak, or at least a plateau.

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U.S. Outlook: Inflation’s return

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise and fall in consumer inflation over past 15 years

While it’s still early, the signs of emerging inflation are beginning to surface once again in the U.S. economy.

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Useful refinance program made permanent to help businesses grow

Don Mercer
Posted by Don Mercer
Small Business Banking
Asian-American woman working in flower shop talking with a customer.

The bedrock of the SBA 504 program is it offers long-term, fixed-rate loans with very competitive rates.

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