All Posts Tagged: hourly earnings

U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.President Trump decided to double-down on his budding trade war with China, and the March employment report came in well below consensus expectations at 103K new jobs.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 6.

Key observations:

  • Investors need to pay close attention to the evolving tit-for-tat tariff retaliation between the world’s biggest economies to divine the ultimate direction of the markets.
  • Neither world power will want to be seen as backing down to the other, which is why we expect some tariffs will indeed be imposed.
  • The bright spot in the March jobs report was the pickup in average hourly earnings growth.
  • Stronger average hourly earnings growth in Q1 suggests a consumer spending rebound this quarter is still far more likely than not.

 

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

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U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month.

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

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U.S. Outlook: An early spring for the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in the labor force participation rate.

The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.

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U.S. Outlook: A rock-solid payroll report for January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing monthly job gains over last several years.

Job growth in January exceeded economists’ expectations (227K), adding some hard-data weight to rising spirits in recent consumer and business sentiment surveys.

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