All Posts Tagged: hourly earnings

U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Wage growth has been modest during the current economic expansion, despite healthy job growth that has resulted in a tight labor market.

TTeacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetableshis has puzzled economists and policy makers.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 13.

Key observations:

  • The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions, when wage growth rebounded more rapidly and sharply.
  • Theories for the weak wage growth range from outsourcing to a lack of productivity growth to the presence of shadow slack in the labor market.
  • Given the recent rise in nominal wage rigidities over the past three months through March (the latest data point available), it is unlikely that wage growth will accelerate dramatically in 2019 if this long-term historic relationship holds.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Net new job creation is cooling off.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

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U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month.

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

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