All Posts Tagged: hourly earnings

U.S. Outlook: Moderate job growth continues in January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Here we are at day 35 of the federal government shutdown and economic releases are getting scarce. But next week Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYCshould be an interesting one. We get January employment data from both ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

We are expecting some deceleration in job growth from December’s blistering 312K pace, but our forecasts remain somewhat above the consensus expectations.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 25.

Key observations:
  • The drop in initial jobless claims in January to a new 49- year low is both unexpected during a month’s long federal government shutdown and a testament to the residual strength of the U.S. expansion.
  • We are forecasting a nonfarm payroll gain of 175K jobs in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and healthy monthly average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%.
  • Job growth could remain strong enough in the first half of 2019 to justify another rate hike by June.

Read my full report.

U.S. Outlook 12519 Jobless claims

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U.S. Outlook: Thanksgiving comes early this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
closeup on palate of food delivered by grocery employee.

Rather than a scary October payroll report appropriate for the Halloween season, investors and analysts received an early Thanksgiving surprise.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy keeps cranking out new jobs

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Young professionals in coworking space.

The August employment report looks pretty sweet on the surface.

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U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Teacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetables

The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions.

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U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Net new job creation is cooling off.

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