Nonfarm payroll growth slipped to 157K in July, the slowest pace of monthly job gains since March.
Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 3.Key observations:
- If job gains continue near the current pace, the U.S. unemployment rate will continue to move lower over the coming months.
- We are forecasting the U.S. unemployment rate will average 3.6% by the fourth quarter of next year.
- There is no sign in the July jobs data that the trade war is negatively impacting the U.S. job growth engine.
- Despite falling short of consensus estimates on headline job creation last month, this is in way a weak labor market or even a weakening labor market.
Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.Read More ›
The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.Read More ›
Growing signs of a tightening U.S. labor market were clearly visible in this month’s report, from dropping unemployment rates to rising wages.Read More ›
Overall, it’s a weaker-than-expected jobs report for August that showed renewed softening in the goods-producing side of the economy.Read More ›