All Posts Tagged: housing market

U.S. Outlook: Is tighter monetary policy already beginning to bite?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The September FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed an upbeat assessment of current U.S. economic conditions and the outlook.

Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.At the same time, the Fed dismissed the downside risks to the U.S. economy from Hurricane Florence, the China-U.S. trade war, and foreign economic developments as having only a small net effect on U.S. real GDP growth.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 19.

Key observations:
  • It will still be quite some time before we see the impacts that the Fed tightening to date has had on our economic and financial conditions.
  • The September FOMC minutes commented in several places about rising equity prices and loose financial conditions in the marketplace as a vulnerability and risk to financial stability.
  • Interest-rate-sensitive sectors of our economy from housing to auto sales are already slowing in part due to higher interest rates.
  • From my chair, the FOMC dot plot median feels like an economist’s fairy tale.

Read my full report.

Read More ›

California Economic Outlook – September 2018

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View of downtown Los Angeles, with semi-crowded freeway in the foreground on a sunny morning.

California’s job creation continues to outpace that of the United States as a whole, a trend that has been firmly in place since March of 2012.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: How slow can the housing market go?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Housing being built on a small hill, with wooden scaffolding surrounding much of it. Lovely sunrise is shining above the horizon.

Much of the recently released U.S. housing market data has been on the weaker side.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: What’s the current health of the housing market?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
couple in foreground with toddler on man

Both new and existing home sales dropped sharply in April. So we thought now would be a good time to look at the health of the U.S. housing market.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Retail sales shine in robust holiday shopping season

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A woman looking at her phone, while shopping

December retail sales came in at a robust pace, and November sales were revised higher, cementing a decent increase in real consumer spending for the fourth quarter.

Read More ›