All Posts Tagged: housing starts

U.S. Outlook: Why recent GDP growth doesn’t look sustainable

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Headline third-quarter GDP growth came in at a robust 3.5% after coming off of a sizzling 4.2% pace of growth in the second quarter.

Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.However, the foundation that this growth is built upon is looking a little shaky.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 26.

Key observations:
  • Robust consumer spending and inventory building drove the strong GDP growth last quarter.
  • Residential construction spending is already contracting, dropping at a 4.0% pace in the third quarter.
  • Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining, rather than ramping up.
  • We expect U.S. GDP growth to slow again in the fourth quarter to around a 2.4% pace, and continue to gradually slow in 2019.
Read my full report. Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: How slow can the housing market go?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Housing being built on a small hill, with wooden scaffolding surrounding much of it. Lovely sunrise is shining above the horizon.

Much of the recently released U.S. housing market data has been on the weaker side.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: An early Thanksgiving this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of retail sales in recent months.

Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Housing market is doing just fine

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart showing mortgage rate trends over last few years, with recent dip.

The current low interest-rate environment, healthy labor market, and rising real personal incomes will power the housing market recovery to new highs in 2016.

Read More ›

Outlook for the nursery/greenhouse industry in 2016

Jeff Burch
Posted by Jeff Burch
Agribusiness Banking
Male greenhouse worker in overalls watering a large row of green plants.

Economic indicators point to a strong year ahead for those in the nursery/greenhouse industry.

Read More ›