The U.S. economy is in a good place right now.
Second quarter’s GDP growth estimate looks like it will be revised up to around 4.4% next week, from 4.2% and an initial reading of 4.1%.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 21.Key observations:
- There are growing signs of moderation in some U.S. economic indicators, such as home sales and prices, but business sentiment and consumer confidence remain high.
- We expect a more upbeat assessment of current economic conditions from the FOMC statement and from Powell’s press conference comments.
- There is nothing to stop the FOMC from raising the fed funds target range once more at this meeting (next week) and signaling more rate hikes ahead. We think the next one will happen in December.
The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.Read More ›
California’s job creation continues to outperform the nation, but job growth has slowed as more metro areas exceed full employment.Read More ›
Both new and existing home sales dropped sharply in April. So we thought now would be a good time to look at the health of the U.S. housing market.Read More ›
The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.Read More ›