All Posts Tagged: hurricanes

U.S. Outlook: Light at the end of the tunnel

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity in the fourth quarter.

Graph showing recent rise in S&P 500 stock price indexFactory orders are moving higher, foretelling a solid rebound in U.S. industrial production growth in the months ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 6.

Key observations:

  • The U.S. dollar has weakened about 10% so far this year, making U.S. manufacturing exports more price-competitive in global markets.
  • The ISM manufacturing index hit its highest level since January 2004 in September.
  • The stutter-step we are seeing in the labor market is just a temporary setback that the market and Federal Reserve will largely look past.
  • Don’t be surprised if the hawkish talk from Fed governors continues, and the FOMC goes ahead with another rate hike in December.

Click here to read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our August report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Wide shot of plaza in North Korea dominated by two huge statues for former leaders, with nearby soldiers dwarfed on the ground.

After the North Korean regime had threatened the U.S. with a missile strike, the VIX Index, which is considered a barometer for volatility, dropped only slightly.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC announces balance sheet unwind will begin in October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View of a eagle statue on Federal Reserve building in DC

As was widely telegraphed before the meeting, the committee decided to go ahead with the balance sheet normalization program in October.

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U.S. Outlook: Biggest FOMC meeting of the year on tap

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing GDP forecasts as affected by recent hurricanes.

We are calling this the biggest FOMC meeting of the year because of the impact it could have on interest rate and inflation expectations into 2018 and beyond.

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Investment Insights: The Bermuda shuffle

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Hurricane damage showing a tree on the ground, ripped at the roots

With the dissipation of most of the storm risk, the case for safe-haven assets has lost some steam in the current environment.

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