All Posts Tagged: imports

U.S. Outlook: Q2 GDP is solid; trade a growing downside risk

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Real GDP increased at a slower annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2018, according to the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

A container ship in the harbor in AsiaNow that we have the final Q1 GDP data in hand, what does it mean for the U.S. outlook going forward?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 29.

Key observations:

  • The 2.0% Q1 growth rate is a vast improvement over the U.S. economy’s performance in the first quarter of 2016 and 2017, when GDP grew 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively.
  • Recent stronger-than-expected economic data has caused us to revise up our forecast for Q2 GDP growth to a sizzing 4.4%.
  • Our forecast calls for real GDP growth to moderate to 2.7% for the balance of 2018.
  • What could go wrong with this Goldilocks forecast, you ask? A full-blown multilateral trade war.

 

Read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: The U.S. heavyweight comes out swinging

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Black-and-white shot of a male boxer

The fierce trade battle between the U.S. and China has begun to spill over into foreign and economic policies.

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Investment Insights: Trade war’s back on the menu

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Container ship (full) heading away from busy urban port on a blue-green sea.

After a brief lull filled with political summits, the U.S. and China are back at each other’s throats on trade.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q1 2018 report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Fortress wall in China with decorative 3-story structure on top.

Volatility, the word that strikes fear into the minds of nervous investors, returned in the first quarter of 2018.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

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