All Posts Tagged: income growth

U.S. Outlook: Can the U.S. consumer keep up the pace?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. consumer is often the most important piece of our economic puzzle, making the difference between a solid economic expansion and a mediocre one.

Farmers market scene as several adults look over baskets of red, yellow, and orange tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables.You could say the consumer has been the engine of U.S. economic growth lately.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 9.

Key observations:
  • Since 1947 the consumer spending share of GDP has ranged from a low 58.9% in 1967 to 68.5% in 2011. The 2017 share was just below the 2011 all-time high at 68.4%.
  • Since May the gap between consumer spending growth and income growth has widened over time.
  • The consumer savings rate has declined for seven straight months since reaching 7.4% in February.
  • Our forecast is for annualized real consumer spending growth to decelerate from the current white-hot pace of 4.0% to 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: What you need to know

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart that shows consumer spending trends.

Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: Will consumers keep spending over the holidays?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing growth, declines in various retail sales categories

The retail sales data through October show a consumer who is ready and willing to spend this holiday season.

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U.S. Outlook: Western states charge ahead; many others lag

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graphic showing increase in personal incomes in western United States

Average personal income growth for all states was up 4.4% in 2015, with the Western and Southeastern states showing the strongest percentage gains in personal income.

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U.S. Outlook: The curious case of missing retail sales

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent declines in retail sales.

Looked at in a vacuum, the recent declines in retail sales could herald an impending recession, but that’s not our forecast.

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