All Posts Tagged: inflation

U.S. Outlook: Keeping next week’s Q1 GDP report in perspective

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Over the last three quarters, the U.S. economy and real GDP have been on a sprint, the latter rising at an annual average 3.06%.

Closeup of a woman's arm using gas pump to fill her silver car on a cold day.So what do we expect to see from next week’s advanced Q1 GDP report when it is released on Friday?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 20.

Key observations:

  • Since WTI oil prices bottomed in January 2016 at $39.56 per barrel and then icnreased more than 70% off those lows through yesterday, U.S. GDP growth has rebounded to a respectable 2.6% year-on-year.
  • The U.S. economy has finally moved back to its potential GDP level as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, raising the risk that further above-trend growth may only fuel rising inflationary pressures from here.
  • We are forecasting a below-consensus 1.7% annualized increase in GDP for the first quarter, down from 2.9% in Q4.
  • Growth is expected to rebound back to 2.6% in the second quarter as consumer spending bounces back and government spending ramps up.

Read my full report.

 

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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Facade of the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC on a sunny day.

The FOMC raised the fed funds target rate range another quarter percentage point today to between 1.50% and 1.75% and maintained its median forecast for three quarter-point rate hikes by the end of 2018 and 2019.

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Investment Insights: Tillerson takes a walk

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
3 oil rigs on a snowy, barren field as the sun tries to show itself in a gray sky.

Earnings results and a fairly tame inflation release in the U.S. may be helping to buoy prices against declines from geopolitical news.

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Investment Insights: Cohn clears out

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Aerial view of long rows of aluminum ingots beside a sunny harbor.

Reports of the reasons for Cohn’s departure centered on the chief economic advisor’s direct opposition to the president’s plan to impose tariffs on imported goods such as aluminum and steel.

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U.S. Outlook: Trade fears mount

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large bundle of steel rods being lifted via crane off a stack of many bundled rods.

More signs emerged this week that the Goldilocks view of the U.S. economic outlook could be in for a serious challenge in the weeks ahead.

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