All Posts Tagged: inflation

U.S. Outlook: Strong consumer-led rebound in Q2 GDP anticipated

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Robust real GDP growth above 4% is expected in the second quarter of this year, driven by a sharp rebound in real consumer spending.

Young, smiling man wearing an apron and holding a pen while sitting at a table and talking to a business woman.However, recently released data suggest that spending may cool a bit in the quarters ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 15.

Key observations:

  • Home price growth uncertainty increased to its highest level in a year, suggesting rising mortgage rates are becoming a bigger concern for consumers.
  • The outlook for credit, which supports consumer spending, also worsened in May.
  • The data revealed that 12.8% of respondents expect their financial situation to worsen over the next year, up from 11% in April.
  • The Fed is expected to raise interest rates a total of four times this year and once more next year, all in 25-basis-point increments.

Read my full report.

 

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: FOMC delivers on rate hike; statement and dot plot turn hawkish

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.

For now the Fed is throwing caution to the wind and is pressing ahead with steady rate hikes this year, despite growing downside risks from trade. 

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: What will the oil price spike do to consumer inflation?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Oil rig and snow

Scott Anderson considers how Mideast tensions & rising oil prices may influence the Fed in 2018 and 2019.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Net new job creation is cooling off.

Read More ›