All Posts Tagged: inflation

U.S. Outlook: Fed gambles on inflation’s return

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Mixed messages continue to be thrown off by the U.S. economy, and this week we can add retail sales and consumer inflation for May to the list of economic indicators that continue to disappoint analysts’ expectations.

Chart showing sales growth/loss by category, compared to a year ago.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 16.

Key observations:

  • The three-month moving average on retail sales is running at about half the pace seen over the past 12 months.
  • Inflation is showing signs of moderation after a sharp rebound in the first quarter.
  • The combination of a somewhat less dovish Fed and diminishing growth and inflation expectations is compressing the Treasury yield to an extent that rivals the lows of the expansion.
  • Bank credit has already tightened for CRE and auto lending, while loan demand has weakened pretty much across all segments.

Click here to read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: ‘Doves cry’ in the aftermath of the June FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup on the eagle sculpture near top of the Federal Reserve building in Washington.

The FOMC failed to blink in the face of widespread market skepticism about the Fed’s projected fed funds rate path as it increased the fed funds target range by a quarter percentage point today to between 1.0 and 1.25%.

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U.S. Outlook: Job creation disappoints in May

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing month-over-month trends in US job creation.

The 138,000 jobs created last month left behind some confusion and uneasiness about the true underlying strength of the U.S. labor market.

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U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

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U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

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