All Posts Tagged: inflation

U.S. Outlook: Emerging markets turmoil returns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Emerging markets turmoil returned with a vengeance this week, and it’s more than a simple “taper tantrum” this time around.

Flea market scene in Argentina, with lots of shoppers milling about.Years of strong portfolio inflows into emerging markets may finally be coming home to roost.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 17.

Key observations:
  • Emerging markets were a logical destination for investors searching for yield in a low-interest-rate world.
  • Economic and fiscal policies in countries like Turkey have made their economies especially vulnerable to a classic balance of payments/currency crisis.
  • The emerging markets financial contagion to date has not yet reached a level that will materially hurt the U.S. economy over the near term or deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again in September.
  • But the contagion could develop into another important headwind for the U.S. and global economies in 2019.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Investors go cold Turkey

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Portside at Istanbul, with ships near the coast and large, historic mosue visible in the distance.

The Turkish lira is one of the worst-performing currencies over the last two years, declining over 40% during the period, according to Bloomberg data.

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Investment Insights: Two little words

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Arms of two male finance professionals visible as one types on the keyboard and the other points to finance charts on the computer monitor.

A crucial support for the buoyancy of the U.S. stock market has been corporate earnings.

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U.S. Outlook: Q2 GDP is solid; trade a growing downside risk

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A container ship in the harbor in Asia

Now that we have the final Q1 GDP data in hand, what does it mean for the U.S. outlook going forward?

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U.S. Outlook: The state of household finances today

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
view from above as older couple looks at a laptop together while going through financial paperwork.

According to a Federal Reserve report, nominal household debt hit a record high $15.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2018.

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