All Posts Tagged: inflation

U.S. Outlook: Biggest FOMC meeting of the year on tap

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

While the damage from hurricanes Harvey and Irma are still being tallied, we are making some adjustments to our GDP forecasts for Q3, Q4, and Q1 2018.

Graph showing GDP forecasts as affected by recent hurricanes.We expect two-thirds of the lost growth from the hurricanes to be make up in the fourth quarter as economic activity returns and rebuilding begins.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 15.

Key observations:

  • Prior to the hurricanes we were forecasting 3.0% real GDP growth in Q3; we now expect 2.4% in the third quarter.
  • We pushed up our real GDP growth forecast for Q4 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6% from 2.2%.
  • We are calling this the biggest FOMC meeting of the year because of the impact it could have on interest rate and inflation expectations into 2018 and beyond.
  • Bond market inflation expectations remain well below historical norms.

Click here to read my full report.

 

 

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Will inflation come back to life?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing year over year change in producer price inflation

We will be watching next week’s inflation data for August with a keen interest.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: July FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of intricate window designs on the Federal Reserve building.

The FOMC dropped a big hint in today’s FOMC  statement that implementation of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization plan will take place “relatively soon.” 

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Where did inflation go?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rises and (recent) dip in consumer inflation trends.

As recently as March, inflation appeared to be heating up.

Read More ›