The U.S. economy is in a good place right now.
Second quarter’s GDP growth estimate looks like it will be revised up to around 4.4% next week, from 4.2% and an initial reading of 4.1%.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 21.Key observations:
- There are growing signs of moderation in some U.S. economic indicators, such as home sales and prices, but business sentiment and consumer confidence remain high.
- We expect a more upbeat assessment of current economic conditions from the FOMC statement and from Powell’s press conference comments.
- There is nothing to stop the FOMC from raising the fed funds target range once more at this meeting (next week) and signaling more rate hikes ahead. We think the next one will happen in December.
The August employment report looks pretty sweet on the surface.Read More ›
Continued optimism in earnings and a sizzling GDP growth number in the U.S. have urged domestic stock markets even higher.Read More ›
The Fed kept its future interest rate hike plans close to its vest today.Read More ›
GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.Read More ›