All Posts Tagged: interest rates

U.S. Outlook: What is going on with bank credit?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Consumer confidence is near 17-year highs, and business confidence is up.

Graph showing recent dip in commercial bank lendingYou would think banks would be busy making new loans in this sort of economic and financial environment, but you would be wrong.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 10.

Key observations:

  • Loan demand is slowing across nearly all loan categories, and credit standards around consumers are being selectively tightened.
  • Overall commercial bank credit growth fell to 3.15% from a year ago in October.
  • Demand for auto and credit card loans were basically unchanged from the previous quarter.
  • The Fed’s rate hikes, so far, have significantly flattened the Treasury yield curve, reducing the profitability and appetite for new bank lending.

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Let the tax reform fight begin

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
US Capitol dome seen in middle distance on a sunny fall day with lawn and reddish-leaf trees in the foreground.

We are finally getting some concrete details on the size and shape of the likely tax reform package that is moving through the House.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
4 workers sitting around table using their laptops next to large window through which nearby skyscrapers are visible.

we see the net 261K gain in jobs as evidence that the U.S. labor market is swiftly resuming its solid monthly pace of job creation.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of intricate window designs on the Federal Reserve building.

The message from the FOMC this month is no change in monetary policy plans, with the economy and inflation evolving close to our expectations.

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Instant Analysis: Q3 GDP sizzles

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
This is a photo of a crane above a city skyline.

The advance estimate of third quarter GDP growth exceeded nearly all expectations largely shaking off the negative impact of the fall hurricanes.

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