All Posts Tagged: interest rates

U.S. Outlook: Putting Fed tightening cycles under the microscope

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Investors are working overtime to divine not only the Federal Reserve’s next move, but how many more rate hikes we are likely to see in this cycle.

Exterior of the Federal Reserve in winter, with bare trees with loads of branches slightly obscure the building.If you believe the Fed’s own forecast, there will be five rate hikes between now and the end of 2020.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 16.

Key observations:
  • My forecast: We are expecting three more quarter-point rate hikes by the middle of 2019 and then a pause.
  • The Fed’s record of achieving a soft landing for the economy after an interest-rate tightening cycle isn’t all that good.
  • We have the FOMC starting to cut interest rates again by 2020 — a full nine months after the committee pauses.

Read my full report.

NOTE: There will not be a U.S. Outlook next week; it will return on Nov. 30. Happy Thanksgiving!

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U.S. Outlook: Can the U.S. consumer keep up the pace?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Farmers market scene as several adults look over baskets of red, yellow, and orange tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables.

You could say the consumer has been the engine of U.S. economic growth lately.

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U.S. Outlook: Thanksgiving comes early this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
closeup on palate of food delivered by grocery employee.

Rather than a scary October payroll report appropriate for the Halloween season, investors and analysts received an early Thanksgiving surprise.

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U.S. Outlook: Is tighter monetary policy already beginning to bite?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.

The September FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed an upbeat assessment of current U.S. economic conditions and the outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: Don’t let the headline fool you; job engine is intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business people on a break in a glass covered space.

Hurricane Florence muddied the waters of the September payroll report.

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