All Posts Tagged: investors

U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Daily economic indicators continue to show the second-quarter U.S. economic rebound remains on track. However, beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.

Graph showing rise of President Trump's disapproval rating.The political drama in Washington, D.C.,intensified this week and has potentially damaged and/or delayed the Trump administration’s business-friendly economic policy agenda.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 19.

Key observations:

  • President Trump’s ratings are once again revisiting their lowest levels since he took office.
  • Republican lawmakers may be more willing to distance themselves from elements of the president’s tax reform and budget plan — for example, whether to make the tax cuts revenue-neutral or not.
  • Measures of stock market volatility and credit risk show a level of complacency that seems oddly out of place with the dire political headlines of the day.
  • This week’s events call our GDP 2018 forecast into question and tip the balance of risks more toward the downside than the upside in my view.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Feeling good — is it the stock market or the economy?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent decline in the CBOE volatility index.

Investors have gotten extremely comfortable with the economic environment and outlook — some would say the mood is positively complacent.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q3 strategy report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
European Central Bank, Frankfurt

We see emerging markets and smaller companies as a possible opportunity, but we are underweight to those areas in the current environment.

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U.S. Outlook: Dark clouds on the horizon

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing projected slowdown in job growth in next few quarters

Financial volatility is on the rise and uncertainty is high enough to keep the FOMC in a holding pattern until the storm clouds dissipate.

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U.S. Outlook: Gearing up for the big week ahead

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
chart showing upward trend in S&P 500 stock price index.

An advanced estimate of first-quarter GDP and the April FOMC decision will be among the activities to watch next week.

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