All Posts Tagged: Japan

U.S. Outlook: Emerging markets turmoil returns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Emerging markets turmoil returned with a vengeance this week, and it’s more than a simple “taper tantrum” this time around.

Flea market scene in Argentina, with lots of shoppers milling about.Years of strong portfolio inflows into emerging markets may finally be coming home to roost.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 17.

Key observations:
  • Emerging markets were a logical destination for investors searching for yield in a low-interest-rate world.
  • Economic and fiscal policies in countries like Turkey have made their economies especially vulnerable to a classic balance of payments/currency crisis.
  • The emerging markets financial contagion to date has not yet reached a level that will materially hurt the U.S. economy over the near term or deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again in September.
  • But the contagion could develop into another important headwind for the U.S. and global economies in 2019.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Another 8 seconds

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
An image of the Tokyo Tower.

Just like riders at a rodeo, some investors have opted to try another go-around on the bull market – for as long as it may last.

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Investment Insights: Don’t forget about risk

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Overhead shot above very tall skyscrapers in Shanghai, with view of nearby river surrounding the cityscape.

Nothing seems to be able to stop the recent climb in stock markets.

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Investment Insights: Nothing is certain but death and taxes

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Interior shot of the Capitol with an ominous view down the staircase.

The threat of turnover may also apply to Congress as approval ratings plummet and key issues like healthcare and tax reform linger with lawmakers in gridlock.

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U.S. Outlook: Global economy firing on all cylinders

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing growth in several major economies around the world.

The Fed no longer has the crutch of a moribund global economy to blame for not embarking on monetary policy normalization.

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