All Posts Tagged: job growth

U.S. Outlook: Jobs report eases near-term recession concerns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Following the recent plunge in the ISM Manufacturing Index for December, investor fear of a near-term recession reached a fever pitch and Fed funds futures started pricing in a Fed rate cut in 2019.A woman posting a help wanted sign.

What a difference a day makes. The December employment report exceeded all analysts’ expectations.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 4.

Key observations:
  • The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December, a 2.5% annualized pace, bringing the three-month average of monthly job gains to a sizzling 254,000.
  • Job growth in the fourth quarter was the strongest in more than two years.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate increased by two-tenths of a percentage point in December to 3.9%. The number of unemployed persons increased by 276,000 last month. That was largely due to people voluntarily quitting.
  • Strong job growth and improving hourly earnings will keep consumer spending and the U.S. expansion going at a decent pace in the first half of 2019.

Read my full report.

Nonfarm employment YoY Growth

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California Economic Outlook – December 2018

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Palm-lined tree street in Southern California

Job growth in California has exceeded national job growth for the past 80 months through October, a testament to the continued strength of the state’s labor market.

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U.S. Outlook: Don’t let the headline fool you; job engine is intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business people on a break in a glass covered space.

Hurricane Florence muddied the waters of the September payroll report.

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California Economic Outlook – September 2018

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View of downtown Los Angeles, with semi-crowded freeway in the foreground on a sunny morning.

California’s job creation continues to outpace that of the United States as a whole, a trend that has been firmly in place since March of 2012.

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U.S. Outlook: Trade fears mount

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large bundle of steel rods being lifted via crane off a stack of many bundled rods.

More signs emerged this week that the Goldilocks view of the U.S. economic outlook could be in for a serious challenge in the weeks ahead.

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