All Posts Tagged: job market

U.S. Outlook: Fingers crossed, we need a bounce in GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

This morning’s second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.

graph showing drop in G10 Surprise Economic INdexThe revisions increased the headline GDP growth rate to 1.2% annualized in Q1 from an originally reported 0.7% gain.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 26.

Key observations:

  • The May FOMC minutes, released earlier this week, shouldn’t dissuade from further Fed rate hikes or the start of Fed balance sheet reductions before year end. But much depends on a second quarter bounce in activity.
  • Housing, real estate, and personal/household data have missed more regularly over the past month, while retail/wholesale and industrial sectors continue to underperform expectations.
  • If the consumer spending recovery doesn’t materialize, watch out for falling growth forecasts.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of President Trump

Beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decision & statement for February

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve at dusk.

There were few surprises in today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and statement to hold the fed funds target rate at between 0.50 and 0.75%.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decision & statement for November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve at dusk.

The FOMC statement released along with the decision today lays the necessary groundwork for a December rate hike decision.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Shot of the Federal Reserve on a sunny day.

I never thought I would live to see the day.  The FOMC decided today to take baby-steps toward interest rate normalization. 

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