All Posts Tagged: job market

U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Daily economic indicators continue to show the second-quarter U.S. economic rebound remains on track. However, beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.

Graph showing rise of President Trump's disapproval rating.The political drama in Washington, D.C.,intensified this week and has potentially damaged and/or delayed the Trump administration’s business-friendly economic policy agenda.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 19.

Key observations:

  • President Trump’s ratings are once again revisiting their lowest levels since he took office.
  • Republican lawmakers may be more willing to distance themselves from elements of the president’s tax reform and budget plan — for example, whether to make the tax cuts revenue-neutral or not.
  • Measures of stock market volatility and credit risk show a level of complacency that seems oddly out of place with the dire political headlines of the day.
  • This week’s events call our GDP 2018 forecast into question and tip the balance of risks more toward the downside than the upside in my view.

Click here to read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decision & statement for February

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve at dusk.

There were few surprises in today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and statement to hold the fed funds target rate at between 0.50 and 0.75%.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decision & statement for November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve at dusk.

The FOMC statement released along with the decision today lays the necessary groundwork for a December rate hike decision.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Shot of the Federal Reserve on a sunny day.

I never thought I would live to see the day.  The FOMC decided today to take baby-steps toward interest rate normalization. 

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for February

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy urban walkway with a male and female executive meeting and shaking hands.

Bad winter weather and the West Coast port slowdown weren’t enough to shake the improving momentum in the U.S. labor market.

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