All Posts Tagged: job market

U.S. Outlook: Positive economic surprises continue

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The positive economic surprises keep coming for the U.S. economy.

The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 1.

Key observations:

  • Both “soft” indicators, like PMI and consumer confidence indexes, and “hard” indicators, like housing and retail sales, are exceeding consensus expectations.
  • We expect a robust 217K jobs were created in November, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%.
  • Business equipment spending is coming back to life.
  • Maintaining this outperformance into 2018 will be extremely difficult.

 

Read my full report.

 

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: July FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of intricate window designs on the Federal Reserve building.

The FOMC dropped a big hint in today’s FOMC  statement that implementation of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization plan will take place “relatively soon.” 

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Fingers crossed, we need a bounce in GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing drop in G10 Surprise Economic INdex

The second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of President Trump

Beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: FOMC decision & statement for February

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve at dusk.

There were few surprises in today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and statement to hold the fed funds target rate at between 0.50 and 0.75%.

Read More ›