It’s not only the stock market that’s throwing off more mixed signals and increased volatility these days.
The tea leaves on the U.S. economy have become harder to read as well.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 23.
- The U.S. labor market continues to run hot. We look for the U.S. unemployment rate to move a tenth of a percentage point lower to 4.0% when the February jobs report is released.
- Existing home sales have dropped sharply for two consecutive months now.
- Economic indicators are still generally beating analysts’ expectations, but not by as much as they were just a month ago.
- Our estimate for Q1 GDP growth slips to 2.0%, as real consumer spending continues to lag the fourth quarter growth rate.
Read More ›
The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.Read More ›
The FOMC dropped a big hint in today’s FOMC statement that implementation of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization plan will take place “relatively soon.”Read More ›
The second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.Read More ›
Beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.Read More ›