This morning’s second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 26.
- The May FOMC minutes, released earlier this week, shouldn’t dissuade from further Fed rate hikes or the start of Fed balance sheet reductions before year end. But much depends on a second quarter bounce in activity.
- Housing, real estate, and personal/household data have missed more regularly over the past month, while retail/wholesale and industrial sectors continue to underperform expectations.
- If the consumer spending recovery doesn’t materialize, watch out for falling growth forecasts.
Beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.Read More ›
There were few surprises in today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and statement to hold the fed funds target rate at between 0.50 and 0.75%.Read More ›
The FOMC statement released along with the decision today lays the necessary groundwork for a December rate hike decision.Read More ›
I never thought I would live to see the day. The FOMC decided today to take baby-steps toward interest rate normalization.Read More ›