All Posts Tagged: job market

U.S. Outlook: Is the economy accelerating or slowing down?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

It’s not only the stock market that’s throwing off more mixed signals and increased volatility these days.

Graph showing different leading indicators for economic performance.The tea leaves on the U.S. economy have become harder to read as well.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 23.

Key observations:

  • The U.S. labor market continues to run hot. We look for the U.S. unemployment rate to move a tenth of a percentage point lower to 4.0% when the February jobs report is released.
  • Existing home sales have dropped sharply for two consecutive months now.
  • Economic indicators are still generally beating analysts’ expectations, but not by as much as they were just a month ago.
  • Our estimate for Q1 GDP growth slips to 2.0%, as real consumer spending continues to lag the fourth quarter growth rate.

 

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Positive economic surprises continue

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.

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Instant Analysis: July FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of intricate window designs on the Federal Reserve building.

The FOMC dropped a big hint in today’s FOMC  statement that implementation of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization plan will take place “relatively soon.” 

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U.S. Outlook: Fingers crossed, we need a bounce in GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing drop in G10 Surprise Economic INdex

The second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.

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U.S. Outlook: Intrigue hijacks the policy agenda; risk on the rise

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of President Trump

Beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.

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