The good news on the labor market continued this week.
The four-week average for initial jobless claims is at a historically low 243.5K. We haven’t seen these low levels since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 12.
- The job openings rate has been higher than both the hiring and separations rates since the end of 2014.
- On average, there are 1.2 unemployed persons for every open job today, compared to 5.9 in the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession.
- Robust inflation and labor market data should have bond investors boosting their odds of Fed rate hikes this year and into 2018.
- The risk of the U.S. economy overshooting full employment and rekindling inflationary pressures is on the rise.
While it’s still early, the signs of emerging inflation are beginning to surface once again in the U.S. economy.Read More ›
Several prominent Fed governors have tried in recent weeks to prepare markets for a near-term 0.25 percentage point rate hike.Read More ›
Like a user of the Tinder app evaluating a romantic prospect, I believe Fed Chair Yellen will, once again, swipe left: Interest rate hike rejected!Read More ›
What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?Read More ›