All Posts Tagged: jobless claims

U.S. Outlook: Moderate job growth continues in January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Here we are at day 35 of the federal government shutdown and economic releases are getting scarce. But next week Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYCshould be an interesting one. We get January employment data from both ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

We are expecting some deceleration in job growth from December’s blistering 312K pace, but our forecasts remain somewhat above the consensus expectations.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 25.

Key observations:
  • The drop in initial jobless claims in January to a new 49- year low is both unexpected during a month’s long federal government shutdown and a testament to the residual strength of the U.S. expansion.
  • We are forecasting a nonfarm payroll gain of 175K jobs in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and healthy monthly average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%.
  • Job growth could remain strong enough in the first half of 2019 to justify another rate hike by June.

Read my full report.

U.S. Outlook 12519 Jobless claims

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U.S. Outlook: More signs of resilience

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing drop in jobless claims.

Initial jobless claims have already returned to pre-hurricane levels in October, implying a strong rebound in payroll growth.

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U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

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U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

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U.S. Outlook: An early Thanksgiving this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of retail sales in recent months.

Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.

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