All Posts Tagged: jobless claims

U.S. Outlook: More signs of resilience

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The fall hurricanes continue to taint U.S. economic data for September, but there is growing confidence in our forecast for an economic rebound in the fourth quarter.

Graph showing drop in jobless claims.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 13.

Key observations:

  • Initial jobless claims have already returned to pre-hurricane levels in October, implying a strong rebound in payroll growth.
  • The odds are rising that the economy will overshoot full employment in 2018.
  • Consumer spending should rebound above a 3.0% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter.
  • For the first time in many forecasting cycles, the International Monetary Fund revised up its forecasts for global growth this week, to 3.6% for 2017 and 3.8% for 2018, instead of cutting them.

Click here to read my full report.

 

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: An early Thanksgiving this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of retail sales in recent months.

Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Soothing signs of economic growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in industrial production

New economic data and a tentative stabilization in crude oil prices provide more evidence that economic contraction in the near term is unlikely.

Read More ›