The fall hurricanes continue to taint U.S. economic data for September, but there is growing confidence in our forecast for an economic rebound in the fourth quarter.
- Initial jobless claims have already returned to pre-hurricane levels in October, implying a strong rebound in payroll growth.
- The odds are rising that the economy will overshoot full employment in 2018.
- Consumer spending should rebound above a 3.0% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter.
- For the first time in many forecasting cycles, the International Monetary Fund revised up its forecasts for global growth this week, to 3.6% for 2017 and 3.8% for 2018, instead of cutting them.
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Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.Read More ›
We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.Read More ›
Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.Read More ›
New economic data and a tentative stabilization in crude oil prices provide more evidence that economic contraction in the near term is unlikely.Read More ›