All Posts Tagged: jobless claims

U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The good news on the labor market continued this week.

Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

The four-week average for initial jobless claims is at a historically low 243.5K. We haven’t seen these low levels since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 12.

Key observations:

  • The job openings rate has been higher than both the hiring and separations rates since the end of 2014.
  • On average, there are 1.2 unemployed persons for every open job today, compared to 5.9 in the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession.
  • Robust inflation and labor market data should have bond investors boosting their odds of Fed rate hikes this year and into 2018.
  • The risk of the U.S. economy overshooting full employment and rekindling inflationary pressures is on the rise.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: An early Thanksgiving this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of retail sales in recent months.

Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.

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U.S. Outlook: Soothing signs of economic growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in industrial production

New economic data and a tentative stabilization in crude oil prices provide more evidence that economic contraction in the near term is unlikely.

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U.S. Outlook: A market swoon or a Black Swan?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the volatility index trends over past 5 years.

This was the week for cataclysmic predictions from equity analysts.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy is looking better in October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the decline in weekly jobless claims over recent months.

Following the slowdown of August and September, the economic data points so far for October suggest the U.S. is picking up some growth momentum.

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