All Posts Tagged: jobs report

U.S. Outlook: Jobs report eases near-term recession concerns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Following the recent plunge in the ISM Manufacturing Index for December, investor fear of a near-term recession reached a fever pitch and Fed funds futures started pricing in a Fed rate cut in 2019.A woman posting a help wanted sign.

What a difference a day makes. The December employment report exceeded all analysts’ expectations.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 4.

Key observations:
  • The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December, a 2.5% annualized pace, bringing the three-month average of monthly job gains to a sizzling 254,000.
  • Job growth in the fourth quarter was the strongest in more than two years.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate increased by two-tenths of a percentage point in December to 3.9%. The number of unemployed persons increased by 276,000 last month. That was largely due to people voluntarily quitting.
  • Strong job growth and improving hourly earnings will keep consumer spending and the U.S. expansion going at a decent pace in the first half of 2019.

Read my full report.

Nonfarm employment YoY Growth

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U.S. Outlook: Thanksgiving comes early this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
closeup on palate of food delivered by grocery employee.

Rather than a scary October payroll report appropriate for the Halloween season, investors and analysts received an early Thanksgiving surprise.

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U.S. Outlook: Don’t let the headline fool you; job engine is intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business people on a break in a glass covered space.

Hurricane Florence muddied the waters of the September payroll report.

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Instant Analysis: June payrolls surprise to the upside, but wage growth disappoints

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

June’s job numbers keep the Goldilocks story of this economic expansion alive.

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U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Net new job creation is cooling off.

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