Spring in February: Is it global warming, stock market gains, Donald Trump, or a rekindling of animal spirits that helped push up the job growth numbers last month?
For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 10.
- The increased momentum could have something to do with unusually mild winter weather playing havoc on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonal adjustment factors.
- Average hourly earnings growth has been accelerating as the economy rapidly absorbs remaining slack in the labor market.
- A March Fed rate hike is a near-certainty now with this strong payroll report under our belt.
- The report also raises the possibility of another rate hike as soon as the June meeting, though our baseline forecast is still for a September move.
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The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.Read More ›
What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?Read More ›
The U.S. labor market ended the year on a solid note, staunching this week’s equity market panic.Read More ›
Following the slowdown of August and September, the economic data points so far for October suggest the U.S. is picking up some growth momentum.Read More ›