All Posts Tagged: jobs report

U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Net new job creation is cooling off. Nonfarm payroll growth at 164K in April came in a bit short of analysts’ expectations for the second month in a row.

Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.Should we be worried about this deceleration in job growth?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 4.

Key observations:

  • Economists, including at the Fed, have noted that monthly job growth above 200K jobs per month was unsustainable, given our sluggish labor force growth.
  • The unemployment rate of 3.9% in April is the lowest unemployment rate in this country since December 2000.
  • Why we aren’t seeing serious wage and inflation pressures from such a low unemployment rate is a puzzle that’s likely to consume the Fed staff in the weeks ahead.
  • The cool-down in average monthly job growth makes me more comfortable with my forecast for just three interest rate hikes this year.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: What you need to know

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart that shows consumer spending trends.

Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: An early spring for the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in the labor force participation rate.

The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Silhouette of a delivery man and truck at sunset with blue sky in the background.

The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.

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U.S. Outlook: The labor market through a different prism

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing growth and loss trends in job openings for past several years.

What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?

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