All Posts Tagged: jobs report

U.S. Outlook: An early spring for the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Spring in February: Is it global warming, stock market gains, Donald Trump, or a rekindling of animal spirits that helped push up the job growth numbers last month?

Graph showing recent rise in the labor force participation rate.The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 10.

Key observations:

  • The increased momentum could have something to do with unusually mild winter weather playing havoc on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonal adjustment factors.
  • Average hourly earnings growth has been accelerating as the economy rapidly absorbs remaining slack in the labor market.
  • A March Fed rate hike is a near-certainty now with this strong payroll report under our belt.
  • The report also raises the possibility of another rate hike as soon as the June meeting, though our baseline forecast is still for a September move.

 

Click here to read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Silhouette of a delivery man and truck at sunset with blue sky in the background.

The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.

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U.S. Outlook: The labor market through a different prism

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing growth and loss trends in job openings for past several years.

What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowd of people walking to work (seen from behind) in an urban center walkway.

The U.S. labor market ended the year on a solid note, staunching this week’s equity market panic.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy is looking better in October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the decline in weekly jobless claims over recent months.

Following the slowdown of August and September, the economic data points so far for October suggest the U.S. is picking up some growth momentum.

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