June nonfarm growth easily surpassed analysts’ expectations, increasing by 222K jobs on the month.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 7.
- As long as the U.S. economy can continue to put up job numbers like this, the FOMC will remain on its rate-hike and balance-sheet-reduction schedules this year.
- Our forecast on Fed monetary policy going forward is unchanged, given this new labor market information.
- If there was any disappointment, it was in average hourly earnings.
- Without stronger wage growth, it is unlikely we will see sustained acceleration in consumer price inflation anytime soon.
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Alan Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the disconnect between stock market gains and economic fundamentals in the late 1990s. Is it time to use the phrase again? For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 31. Key observations: […]Read More ›
Job growth in January exceeded economists’ expectations (227K), adding some hard-data weight to rising spirits in recent consumer and business sentiment surveys.Read More ›