All Posts Tagged: jobs

U.S. Outlook: Job growth back on track in June

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

June nonfarm growth easily surpassed analysts’ expectations, increasing by 222K jobs on the month.

Chart showing growth in various job sectors in June.Overall this was a solid payroll report that reinforces the notion that the U.S. labor market remains a bright spot for the U.S. economic expansion.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 7.

Key observations:

  • As long as the U.S. economy can continue to put up job numbers like this, the FOMC will remain on its rate-hike and balance-sheet-reduction schedules this year.
  • Our forecast on Fed monetary policy going forward is unchanged, given this new labor market information.
  • If there was any disappointment, it was in average hourly earnings.
  • Without stronger wage growth, it is unlikely we will see sustained acceleration in consumer price inflation anytime soon.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth slips in March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing parallel declines in unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate.

While the headline number was a disappointment, the details in the report revealed underlying labor market strength and momentum.

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U.S. Outlook: Are confidence gains becoming delusional?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in consumer confidence

Alan Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the disconnect between stock market gains and economic fundamentals in the late 1990s. Is it time to use the phrase again? For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 31. Key observations: […]

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U.S. Outlook: A rock-solid payroll report for January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing monthly job gains over last several years.

Job growth in January exceeded economists’ expectations (227K), adding some hard-data weight to rising spirits in recent consumer and business sentiment surveys.

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