All Posts Tagged: jobs

U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.President Trump decided to double-down on his budding trade war with China, and the March employment report came in well below consensus expectations at 103K new jobs.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 6.

Key observations:

  • Investors need to pay close attention to the evolving tit-for-tat tariff retaliation between the world’s biggest economies to divine the ultimate direction of the markets.
  • Neither world power will want to be seen as backing down to the other, which is why we expect some tariffs will indeed be imposed.
  • The bright spot in the March jobs report was the pickup in average hourly earnings growth.
  • Stronger average hourly earnings growth in Q1 suggests a consumer spending rebound this quarter is still far more likely than not.

 

Read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: November Payroll report reveals robust job creation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Overall, a solid payroll report very much in line with our expectations.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
4 workers sitting around table using their laptops next to large window through which nearby skyscrapers are visible.

we see the net 261K gain in jobs as evidence that the U.S. labor market is swiftly resuming its solid monthly pace of job creation.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs decline due to hurricanes & unemployment rate unexpectedly drops

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business owner looking worried as he checks his laptop and waits on the phone in his warehouse.

There was something for everyone in the September jobs report, but we think it wise for investors to look past the downbeat headline job loss.

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U.S. Outlook: Job report increases doubts about Fed rate hike path

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent trend in unemployment rate (monthly)

The August jobs report came in on the weak side, raising concerns that the Fed’s gradual tightening path could become glacial in the year ahead.

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