All Posts Tagged: jobs

U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

outside shoppers in San FranciscoHow does this expansion stack up against the longest on record, and how long will it last?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 8.

Key observations:

  • The current expansion, at 108 month long and running, is the second longest in history going back to 1854, trailing only the 1991-2001 expansion.
  • Sharp downturns in GDP are sometimes followed by strong and rapid recoveries, but debt-driven recessions, like the Great Recession, can take longer to fully recover from.
  • Income growth during the current expansion has remained tepid compared to past expansions.
  • In our view, this expansion is likely to last for at least six more quarters, partly due to the tax cuts that were enacted late last year.

 

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

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Instant Analysis: November Payroll report reveals robust job creation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Overall, a solid payroll report very much in line with our expectations.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
4 workers sitting around table using their laptops next to large window through which nearby skyscrapers are visible.

we see the net 261K gain in jobs as evidence that the U.S. labor market is swiftly resuming its solid monthly pace of job creation.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs decline due to hurricanes & unemployment rate unexpectedly drops

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business owner looking worried as he checks his laptop and waits on the phone in his warehouse.

There was something for everyone in the September jobs report, but we think it wise for investors to look past the downbeat headline job loss.

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