I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.
That is not to say Q2 growth won’t accelerate from moribund Q1 rates.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 13.
- Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index continues to deteriorate and turned net negative for the first time since last June.
- The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, where industrial production has declined for three consecutive months for the first time since 2012.
- If U.S. and global growth was about to gallop higher in the months ahead, why haven’t commodity futures prices budged?
- The 2 year/10 year Treasury bond yield spread shrank to an expansion-low 47 basis points this week.
February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.Read More ›
The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.Read More ›
The December FOMC decision to raise the Fed funds target rate another quarter percentage point reveals a chink developing in the armor of a unified FOMC.Read More ›
The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity.Read More ›