All Posts Tagged: labor market

U.S. Outlook: Is tighter monetary policy already beginning to bite?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The September FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed an upbeat assessment of current U.S. economic conditions and the outlook.

Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.At the same time, the Fed dismissed the downside risks to the U.S. economy from Hurricane Florence, the China-U.S. trade war, and foreign economic developments as having only a small net effect on U.S. real GDP growth.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 19.

Key observations:
  • It will still be quite some time before we see the impacts that the Fed tightening to date has had on our economic and financial conditions.
  • The September FOMC minutes commented in several places about rising equity prices and loose financial conditions in the marketplace as a vulnerability and risk to financial stability.
  • Interest-rate-sensitive sectors of our economy from housing to auto sales are already slowing in part due to higher interest rates.
  • From my chair, the FOMC dot plot median feels like an economist’s fairy tale.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: On the hunt for a better job

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business man on Wall St. at top of escalator carrying folded newspapers

It is widely known that the U.S. economy is creating new jobs at a rapid pace. Since the expansion started, the economy has added nearly 20 million jobs.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth cools in July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Sun-drenched shot of workers hurrying across a bridge at the start of the workday.

Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.

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U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Teacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetables

The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions.

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Instant Analysis: June payrolls surprise to the upside, but wage growth disappoints

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

June’s job numbers keep the Goldilocks story of this economic expansion alive.

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