All Posts Tagged: labor market

U.S. Outlook: Job growth cools in July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Nonfarm payroll growth slipped to 157K in July, the slowest pace of monthly job gains since March.

Sun-drenched shot of workers hurrying across a bridge at the start of the workday.Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 3.

Key observations:
  • If job gains continue near the current pace, the U.S. unemployment rate will continue to move lower over the coming months.
  • We are forecasting the U.S. unemployment rate will average 3.6% by the fourth quarter of next year.
  • There is no sign in the July jobs data that the trade war is negatively impacting the U.S. job growth engine.
  • Despite falling short of consensus estimates on headline job creation last month, this is in way a weak labor market or even a weakening labor market.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Teacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetables

The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions.

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Instant Analysis: June payrolls surprise to the upside, but wage growth disappoints

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

June’s job numbers keep the Goldilocks story of this economic expansion alive.

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U.S. Outlook: Q2 GDP is solid; trade a growing downside risk

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A container ship in the harbor in Asia

Now that we have the final Q1 GDP data in hand, what does it mean for the U.S. outlook going forward?

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Instant Analysis: FOMC delivers on rate hike; statement and dot plot turn hawkish

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.

For now the Fed is throwing caution to the wind and is pressing ahead with steady rate hikes this year, despite growing downside risks from trade. 

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