All Posts Tagged: labor market

U.S. Outlook: Have U.S. and global growth already peaked?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.

Graph showing economic surprise index in declineThat is not to say Q2 growth won’t accelerate from moribund Q1 rates.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 13.

Key observations:

  • Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index continues to deteriorate and turned net negative for the first time since last June.
  • The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, where industrial production has declined for three consecutive months for the first time since 2012.
  • If U.S. and global growth was about to gallop higher in the months ahead, why haven’t commodity futures prices budged?
  • The 2 year/10 year Treasury bond yield spread shrank to an expansion-low 47 basis points this week.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decides to raise interest rates again

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Exterior of the Federal Reserve in winter, with bare trees with loads of branches slightly obscure the building.

The December FOMC decision to raise the Fed funds target rate another quarter percentage point reveals a chink developing in the armor of a unified FOMC. 

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U.S. Outlook: Light at the end of the tunnel

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in S&P 500 stock price index

The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity.

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