The good news on the labor market continued this week.
The four-week average for initial jobless claims is at a historically low 243.5K. We haven’t seen these low levels since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 12.
- The job openings rate has been higher than both the hiring and separations rates since the end of 2014.
- On average, there are 1.2 unemployed persons for every open job today, compared to 5.9 in the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession.
- Robust inflation and labor market data should have bond investors boosting their odds of Fed rate hikes this year and into 2018.
- The risk of the U.S. economy overshooting full employment and rekindling inflationary pressures is on the rise.
Preliminary signs are that weaker-than-expected data visible in March may be carrying over into April.Read More ›
Alan Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the disconnect between stock market gains and economic fundamentals in the late 1990s. Is it time to use the phrase again? For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 31. Key observations: […]Read More ›
The payroll report for February did not disappoint. Job gains were 235K; our forecast was for 220K.Read More ›
The chorus of calls from Fed officials that a rate hike is coming soon got a lot louder this week.Read More ›