All Posts Tagged: labor market

U.S. Outlook: Light at the end of the tunnel

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity in the fourth quarter.

Graph showing recent rise in S&P 500 stock price indexFactory orders are moving higher, foretelling a solid rebound in U.S. industrial production growth in the months ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 6.

Key observations:

  • The U.S. dollar has weakened about 10% so far this year, making U.S. manufacturing exports more price-competitive in global markets.
  • The ISM manufacturing index hit its highest level since January 2004 in September.
  • The stutter-step we are seeing in the labor market is just a temporary setback that the market and Federal Reserve will largely look past.
  • Don’t be surprised if the hawkish talk from Fed governors continues, and the FOMC goes ahead with another rate hike in December.

Click here to read my full report.

 

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Instant Analysis: Jobs decline due to hurricanes & unemployment rate unexpectedly drops

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business owner looking worried as he checks his laptop and waits on the phone in his warehouse.

There was something for everyone in the September jobs report, but we think it wise for investors to look past the downbeat headline job loss.

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U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

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U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

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U.S. Outlook: No sign of an April bounce so far

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent drop in Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.

Preliminary signs are that weaker-than-expected data visible in March may be carrying over into April.

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