All Posts Tagged: labor

U.S. Outlook: Positive economic surprises continue

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The positive economic surprises keep coming for the U.S. economy.

The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 1.

Key observations:

  • Both “soft” indicators, like PMI and consumer confidence indexes, and “hard” indicators, like housing and retail sales, are exceeding consensus expectations.
  • We expect a robust 217K jobs were created in November, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%.
  • Business equipment spending is coming back to life.
  • Maintaining this outperformance into 2018 will be extremely difficult.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Follow the leading indicators

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing expectations of probably rates hikes each month for the next year.

The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve revealed modest to moderate economic growth in 11 of 12 Federal Reserve districts from late August to early October.

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What mid-market businesses should consider as they expand internationally

Lisa Roach
Posted by Lisa Roach
Mid-size Business Banking
4 workers sitting around table using their laptops next to large window through which nearby skyscrapers are visible.

With your financial partner, start by asking the tough questions up front: Why are you considering an overseas expansion?

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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Shot of the Federal Reserve on a sunny day.

I never thought I would live to see the day.  The FOMC decided today to take baby-steps toward interest rate normalization. 

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U.S. Outlook: Labor market recovery not so fast & furious

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing slow dip in under-employed numbers.

We are starting to see a more sobering picture of the labor market.

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