All Posts Tagged: manufacturing

U.S. Outlook: The pause that refreshes, or a sign of dark days ahead?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The first quarter economic slowdown is coming into focus as recent economic indicators confirm a continuing U.S. Two girls working in a factoryand global manufacturing slowdown that appears to be intensifying in February. The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMIs for February fell into contraction territory in the Japanese and the Eurozone economies and revealed softening growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector as well.

Some of the drop in the PMI is likely a response to uncertainties around U.S.- China trade negotiations and the possibility of a hard Brexit from the Eurozone. Manufacturers are reporting that the uncertainty is causing them to delay orders and curtail near-term business investment plans.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 22.

Key observations:
  • Nondefense capital-goods orders for the United States dropped another 0.7% in December and have declined in four of the last five months.
  • We expect the initial release on fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth will show that GDP growth slowed to around 2.2% annualized from 3.4% in the third quarter.
  • We forecast U.S. GDP growth at a modest 1.5% annual rate in Q1.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth downshifts in November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of lab workers wearing goggles and examining specimens up close.

The payroll report for November appears to confirm the recent market narrative, and our own economic forecast, that U.S. economic growth is decelerating in the fourth quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: Thanksgiving comes early this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
closeup on palate of food delivered by grocery employee.

Rather than a scary October payroll report appropriate for the Halloween season, investors and analysts received an early Thanksgiving surprise.

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U.S. Outlook: Don’t let the headline fool you; job engine is intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business people on a break in a glass covered space.

Hurricane Florence muddied the waters of the September payroll report.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy keeps cranking out new jobs

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Young professionals in coworking space.

The August employment report looks pretty sweet on the surface.

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