All Posts Tagged: market volatility

U.S. Outlook: Trimming our GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Granted, there isn’t a lot of hard first-quarter economic data to hang our hat on at this point. With the U.S. government shutdown entering day 28, more and more important U.S. economic indicator releases are being National monuments and museums in Washington DC were closed during the U.S. governemnt shutdown in 2013.delayed by the shutdown.

Only the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve are still releasing data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Commerce Department have all halted their releases due to the government closure.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 18.

Key observations:
  • We’ve cut our Q1 U.S. GDP forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7, to reflect lost economic activity due to the prolonged government shutdown, as well as lost consumer spending resulting from the negative wealth effects from the Q4 stock market selloff.
  • We are penciling in a 0.3 percentage point hit to GDP from the government shutdown alone.
  • The measurable drop in household wealth will crimp consumer spending, especially for high-income households that are exposed to the stock market volatility.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Jobs report eases near-term recession concerns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A woman posting a help wanted sign.

The December employment report exceeded all analysts’ expectations. Scott Anderson examines the employment data in his latest U.S. Outlook.

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Investment Insights: Should we fear, fear?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Upward view of NYSE, decorated with wreaths and a Christmas tree at left.

We believe that the volatility of late has been a long overdue reaction to risks that have been present but are just now being fully priced into financial markets.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q1 2018 report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Fortress wall in China with decorative 3-story structure on top.

Volatility, the word that strikes fear into the minds of nervous investors, returned in the first quarter of 2018.

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Investment Insights: Fasten your seatbelts

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Rollercoaster train, upside down in the middle of a loop, against a clear blue sky.

Even without Wednesday’s market moves, equity markets have been a roller coaster over the last several weeks.

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