All Posts Tagged: monetary policy

U.S. Outlook: Market fears of near-term recession overblown

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

As recently as September when U.S. stocks were hitting new record highs, economic optimism was rampant and, in retrospect, probably overdone.

Busy work environment with stock traders concentrating on their computers.In my view, the markets are once again overreacting.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 14.

Key observations:
  • Yes, the global economy is in what appears to be a synchronized slowdown.
  • Tighter monetary policy and financial conditions, fading fiscal stimulus, and slowing global growth will all conspire to slow down the economic freight train that has been the U.S. economy this year.
  • We forecast another quarter-point rate hike from the FOMC next week, bringing the fed funds target rate to a 2.25% to 2.50% range.
  • A recession may come by sometime in 2020, but this episode of market volatility isn’t it.

Read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: August FOMC meeting minutes

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Facade of the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC on a sunny day.

A September rate hike is a near certainty at the next FOMC meeting. 

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Investment Insights: What’s got bond markets in a huff?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Close up on Wall St. street sign, with tourists enjoying the street in summer weather behind it.

Corporate earnings continue to be supportive and a bright spot for financial markets.

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Investment Insights: Two little words

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Arms of two male finance professionals visible as one types on the keyboard and the other points to finance charts on the computer monitor.

A crucial support for the buoyancy of the U.S. stock market has been corporate earnings.

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Investment Insights: Political battle royale

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Flags of Canada, U.S.A., and Mexico aligned diagonally and overlapping.

Investors and markets alike seemed to yawn at the now typical annual event known as the U.S. government shutdown.

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