All Posts Tagged: NAFTA

U.S. Outlook: Trade fears mount

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

More signs emerged this week that the Goldilocks view of the U.S. economic outlook could be in for a serious challenge in the weeks ahead.

Large bundle of steel rods being lifted via crane off a stack of many bundled rods.President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports roiled global financial markets yesterday and again today.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 2.

Key observations:

  • Trump fanned the flames by tweeting, “Trade wars are good and easy to win.” I believe trade retaliation is likely.
  • If the stock market was looking for a reason to sell off, this could be the trigger, especially if the U.S. action touches off a serious global trade war.
  • We lower our estimate of Q1 GDP to 1.8%, down from a downwardly revised 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
  • On the bright side, U.S. initial jobless claims fell to the lowest levels since 1969 last week, bolstering our forecast for February job creation to 215K.

 

Read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Political battle royale

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Flags of Canada, U.S.A., and Mexico aligned diagonally and overlapping.

Investors and markets alike seemed to yawn at the now typical annual event known as the U.S. government shutdown.

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Investment Insights: Politics eclipse fundamentals

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Chart showing various market returns as of 8/22/17

President Trump seems to be ready for a government shutdown if the newest spending bill does not include funds for the border wall.

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Investment Insights: Inking the Inauguration

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Crowd of gloved hands raising a few American flags with the Capitol looming in the distance during an Inauguration Day event.

President Trump’s actions will have strong effects on production and trade for the U.S. on a worldwide scale.

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