All Posts Tagged: new jobs

U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month.This was well above consensus expectations of 180K jobs. The payroll report also contained a big surprise on hourly earnings data.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 2.

Key observations:

  • A large upward revision in average hourly earnings punches a hole in the narrative that wage growth remains lackluster.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in January, but that appeared to have more to do with a big jump in the labor force estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Monthly payroll numbers like these not only show the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders today, it could be running a bit too hot.
  • The bond market is finally changing its tune on the inflation outlook.

 

Read my full report.

 

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Instant Analysis: Jobs decline due to hurricanes & unemployment rate unexpectedly drops

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business owner looking worried as he checks his laptop and waits on the phone in his warehouse.

There was something for everyone in the September jobs report, but we think it wise for investors to look past the downbeat headline job loss.

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Instant Analysis: GDP and ADP employment exceed market expectations

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Small group of colleagues looking at a strategy document as seen through a glass window with a hint of urban reflection

This raises the odds that nonfarm payroll gains for the month of August, released on Friday, could also surpass economists’ forecasts.

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U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth slips in March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing parallel declines in unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate.

While the headline number was a disappointment, the details in the report revealed underlying labor market strength and momentum.

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