All Posts Tagged: oil prices

U.S. Outlook: Where did inflation go?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

As recently as March, inflation appeared to be heating up. Fast forward to June, and the inflation landscape appears far different and the outlook for inflation far less certain.

Graph showing rises and (recent) dip in consumer inflation trends.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 14.

Key observations:

  • Consumer inflation has slowed almost in half to 1.6% from a 2.8% pace in February.
  • Numerous core consumer inflation measures are also dropping, moving further away from the Fed’s medium-term target of around 2.0%.
  • The big reason for the reversal of late comes down to ebbs and flows in energy and commodity prices.
  • The bond market isn’t buying the Fed’s inflation forecasts.
  • We continue to forecast consumer inflation next year at around 2.0%, but that is lower than we forecasted six months ago.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Interest rate normalization is ‘hurry up and wait’

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent downward trend in consumer spending.

“Hurry up and wait” pretty well describes the state of monetary policy today as the Fed goes further down the path of interest-rate normalization. With the March rate hike decision, the FOMC, in my opinion, took the opportunity to fire a shot across the bow against rapidly tightening labor markets, rising consumer inflation, and stock […]

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Business growth signs remain in view during 2017

Kristin Nelson
Wealth Management Strategy
3 women business owners in a meeting. one of whom is talking while holding a tablet.

Most signs point to U.S. business owners having a good year — though there may be some hiccups along the way.

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Investment Insights: Starting off on the right foot

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Flat road with "2017" painted on it leading into a vast horizon under a few dark clouds and sun peeking through.

The financial markets seem to be starting off the year on a positive note as investor optimism buoys markets.

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U.S. Outlook: Global economy gets its groove back

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent trends in Eurozone inflation

We are seeing increasing signs of a synchronized rebound in the global economy, particularly in developed markets.

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