All Posts Tagged: real consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: What you need to know

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.
Chart that shows consumer spending trends.Real consumer spending grew at a sizzling 4.0% annualized rate, the best quarterly performance in three years, according the last week’s third revision of Q4 GDP.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 30.

Key observations:
  • We are raising our forecast for a convincing rebound in real consumer spending in the second quarter to a solid 2.7% annualized rate, with GDP growth accelerating to an above trend 2.6% pace.
  • Get ready for another strong jobs report for March. We expect a net gain of another 245K nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate that drops to 4.0%.
  • We expect stronger average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%, up from a 0.1% gain last month.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Retail sales shine in robust holiday shopping season

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A woman looking at her phone, while shopping

December retail sales came in at a robust pace, and November sales were revised higher, cementing a decent increase in real consumer spending for the fourth quarter.

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