All Posts Tagged: Recession

U.S. Outlook: Are corporate tax cuts making a difference?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which passed in December 2017, made several changes to federal taxes for businesses, including the full expensing of certain machinery and equipment.

Close-up on piles of $100 billsBut has the highly anticipated surge in business spending materialized?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 20.

Key observations:
  • Business equipment spending growth decelerated from 11.5% annualized in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 5.6% in the first quarter.
  • The amount of cash sitting idle on corporate balance sheets hit a record high of about $1.2 trillion in the first quarter of 2018, an increase of almost 250% since the recession ended.
  • There is increasing evidence that a sizable portion of the tax cut is being funneled into stock buybacks.
  • Our outlook calls for nonresidential fixed investment spending growth to accelerate modestly from 4.7% in 2017 to 6.4% this year and then slow to 5.0% in 2019.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Is the grand finale coming?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Multiple fireworks exploding into colorful bursts in a night sky over a California coastal town.

What many are volleying back and forth is whether the financial market is just searching for footing before another leg upward or if this may be a last hurrah before a more portentous drop.

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U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

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Investment Insights: tech, tariffs, and Trump

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Several young professionals sitting on a bench, chatting while looking at various tech devices.

Amid the market’s swings, there have been three themes dominating headlines and moving markets across the globe.

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U.S. Outlook: Market volatility takes center stage

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent spike in stock market volatility.

After months of abnormally low financial market volatility, risk is suddenly a two-way street again.

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