All Posts Tagged: Recession

U.S. Outlook: Market volatility takes center stage

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

After months of abnormally low financial market volatility, risk is suddenly a two-way street again.

Graph showing recent spike in stock market volatility.The CBOE VIX Index, a measure of future stock market volatility, increased to 37.3 last Friday. The is the highest level of the VIX in two-and-a-half years.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 9.

Key observations:

  • I just want to point out that Janet Yellen sure knows when to make an exit. The same day Jerome Powell became the official chairman of the Federal Reserve, the equity and bond markets started their swoons.
  • It’s going to take a lot more selling for the FOMC to rethink its interest rate strategy or its outlook for the U.S. economy.
  • I would put the probability of the U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months at a relatively low 14% today.
  • The market and the economy should be able to land on their feet.

 

Read my full report.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: The odds of a 2019 recession

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Silhouette of a business man watching red and yellow trend arrows going downward to the right, with a cloudy sky visible in the background.

Yes, the U.S. economy’s growth has been suppressed compared to historical data, but that may end up being a silver lining.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: The labor market through a different prism

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing growth and loss trends in job openings for past several years.

What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?

Read More ›

Investment Insights: Excerpts from our February report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
blue electronic display of stock market activity with outdoor urban scene reflected on the glassy surface.

The present sell-off feels very much like the 11% decline in the S&P 500 that took place in August 2015.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: Employment report for January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Man and woman working in mechanic/industrial setting.

The January employment report was not the disaster the markets were bracing for, or even anticipating.

Read More ›