All Posts Tagged: Recession

U.S. Outlook: Putting Fed tightening cycles under the microscope

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Investors are working overtime to divine not only the Federal Reserve’s next move, but how many more rate hikes we are likely to see in this cycle.

Exterior of the Federal Reserve in winter, with bare trees with loads of branches slightly obscure the building.If you believe the Fed’s own forecast, there will be five rate hikes between now and the end of 2020.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 16.

Key observations:
  • My forecast: We are expecting three more quarter-point rate hikes by the middle of 2019 and then a pause.
  • The Fed’s record of achieving a soft landing for the economy after an interest-rate tightening cycle isn’t all that good.
  • We have the FOMC starting to cut interest rates again by 2020 — a full nine months after the committee pauses.

Read my full report.

NOTE: There will not be a U.S. Outlook next week; it will return on Nov. 30. Happy Thanksgiving!

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Investment Insights: Volatility rears its head again

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Colorful Riyadh skyline at dusk.

The troubles in emerging markets have been brought to the fore over the last few months as issues in Turkey have worsened and South Africa has entered a recession.

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7 ideas for business owners looking to tackle costs

Michelle Di Gangi
Small Business Banking
Woman small business owner on the phone at her desk & scanning her computer monitor.

Savvy business owners know that surviving and flourishing is all about keeping costs under control, regardless of the external business environment.

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Investment Insights: The longest U.S. bull market? Sort of.

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Closeup of stock market screen with all green arrows pointing up next to specific percentages.

The current bull market isn’t over yet.

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U.S. Outlook: Are corporate tax cuts making a difference?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close-up on piles of $100 bills

There is increasing evidence that a sizable portion of the tax cut is being funneled into stock buybacks.

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