After months of abnormally low financial market volatility, risk is suddenly a two-way street again.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 9.
- I just want to point out that Janet Yellen sure knows when to make an exit. The same day Jerome Powell became the official chairman of the Federal Reserve, the equity and bond markets started their swoons.
- It’s going to take a lot more selling for the FOMC to rethink its interest rate strategy or its outlook for the U.S. economy.
- I would put the probability of the U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months at a relatively low 14% today.
- The market and the economy should be able to land on their feet.
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Yes, the U.S. economy’s growth has been suppressed compared to historical data, but that may end up being a silver lining.Read More ›
What are labor market indicators — other than the monthly jobs report — telling us about the current health and future state of the jobs market?Read More ›
The present sell-off feels very much like the 11% decline in the S&P 500 that took place in August 2015.Read More ›
The January employment report was not the disaster the markets were bracing for, or even anticipating.Read More ›