All Posts Tagged: Scott Anderson

U.S. Outlook: No sign of an April bounce so far

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

We are just starting to get some U.S. economic indicators for April, but the preliminary signs are that weaker-than-expected data visible in March may be carrying over.

Graph showing recent drop in Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.So far the Empire Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index all came in weaker than consensus forecasts.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 21.

Key observations:

  • While industrial production growth in March exceeded economists’ estimates on gains in utilities production, the manufacturing production measure unexpectedly declined 0.4% last month.
  • Mortgage lending trends have also been less than stellar in April.
  • While the soft patch in economic activity appears to be lingering into April, there is no need to abandon expectations for somewhat stronger economic activity in the second half of the year.
  • There is little reason to expect significant change in the Fed’s roadmap for additional fed funds rate hikes this year and next.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: The hard vs. soft data conundrum revisited

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph comparing hard and soft data of US Economic Surprise Index

In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth slips in March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing parallel declines in unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate.

While the headline number was a disappointment, the details in the report revealed underlying labor market strength and momentum.

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U.S. Outlook: Are confidence gains becoming delusional?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in consumer confidence

Alan Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance” to describe the disconnect between stock market gains and economic fundamentals in the late 1990s. Is it time to use the phrase again? For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 31. Key observations: […]

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U.S. Outlook: Where there is smoke, is there fire?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy street view of US Capitol from a few blocks away.

There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act. Risks that the new administration and Congress could get side-tracked from their tax cut, infrastructure, and deregulation agenda are on the rise. For more on […]

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