All Posts Tagged: Scott Anderson

U.S. Outlook: Keeping next week’s Q1 GDP report in perspective

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Over the last three quarters, the U.S. economy and real GDP have been on a sprint, the latter rising at an annual average 3.06%.

Closeup of a woman's arm using gas pump to fill her silver car on a cold day.So what do we expect to see from next week’s advanced Q1 GDP report when it is released on Friday?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 20.

Key observations:

  • Since WTI oil prices bottomed in January 2016 at $39.56 per barrel and then icnreased more than 70% off those lows through yesterday, U.S. GDP growth has rebounded to a respectable 2.6% year-on-year.
  • The U.S. economy has finally moved back to its potential GDP level as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, raising the risk that further above-trend growth may only fuel rising inflationary pressures from here.
  • We are forecasting a below-consensus 1.7% annualized increase in GDP for the first quarter, down from 2.9% in Q4.
  • Growth is expected to rebound back to 2.6% in the second quarter as consumer spending bounces back and government spending ramps up.

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Have U.S. and global growth already peaked?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing economic surprise index in decline

I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: What you need to know

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart that shows consumer spending trends.

Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade fight takes center stage

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing amount of U.S. steel imports, by country

I would not describe this trade dispute as a full-blown trade war at this stage, but it is certainly an opening salvo in what could become one.

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