All Posts Tagged: Scott Anderson

U.S. Outlook: Job growth downshifts in November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The payroll report for November appears to confirm the recent market narrative, and our own economic forecast, that U.S. economic growth is decelerating in the fourth quarter.

Closeup of lab workers wearing goggles and examining specimens up close.Nonfarm payroll gains slowed to only 155K last month, and the prior month’s gain was revised down to 237K from 250K.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 7.

Key observations:
  • U.S. job growth had been averaging over 200K jobs per month so far this year, but the three-month average monthly gain has now slipped to 170K jobs.
  • Initial jobless claims have been rising gradually now since hitting a cyclical low on Sept. 14.
  • The monthly pace of job gains is still well above the Fed’s estimates that only 60K to 100K jobs per month are needed today to hold the U.S. unemployment rate steady.
  • It is unlikely that today’s payroll report will deter the FOMC from hiking the fed funds rate again in December. And I still think it’s too early to rule out two more rate hikes from the Fed next year.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: What’s behind the oil price plunge?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large, very clean refinery at dawn. No human activity is visible.

Crude oil prices had been generally rising in 2018 before peaking at $76.24 on October 3.

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U.S. Outlook: Putting Fed tightening cycles under the microscope

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Exterior of the Federal Reserve in winter, with bare trees with loads of branches slightly obscure the building.

Investors are working overtime to divine not only the Federal Reserve’s next move, but how many more rate hikes we are likely to see in this cycle.

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U.S. Outlook: Can the U.S. consumer keep up the pace?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Farmers market scene as several adults look over baskets of red, yellow, and orange tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables.

You could say the consumer has been the engine of U.S. economic growth lately.

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U.S. Outlook: Why recent GDP growth doesn’t look sustainable

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.

Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining.

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