All Posts Tagged: Scott Anderson

U.S. Outlook: Emerging markets turmoil returns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Emerging markets turmoil returned with a vengeance this week, and it’s more than a simple “taper tantrum” this time around.

Flea market scene in Argentina, with lots of shoppers milling about.Years of strong portfolio inflows into emerging markets may finally be coming home to roost.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 17.

Key observations:
  • Emerging markets were a logical destination for investors searching for yield in a low-interest-rate world.
  • Economic and fiscal policies in countries like Turkey have made their economies especially vulnerable to a classic balance of payments/currency crisis.
  • The emerging markets financial contagion to date has not yet reached a level that will materially hurt the U.S. economy over the near term or deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again in September.
  • But the contagion could develop into another important headwind for the U.S. and global economies in 2019.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth cools in July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Sun-drenched shot of workers hurrying across a bridge at the start of the workday.

Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.

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Instant Analysis: August FOMC statement nearly identical to June’s statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve building at dusk

The Fed kept its future interest rate hike plans close to its vest today.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy runs hot in the second quarter

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.

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U.S. Outlook: Are corporate tax cuts making a difference?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close-up on piles of $100 bills

There is increasing evidence that a sizable portion of the tax cut is being funneled into stock buybacks.

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