All Posts Tagged: Scott Anderson

U.S. Outlook: Q3 GDP report preview

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

There is little doubt that hurricanes Harvey and Irma will have a negative impact on Q3 GDP growth when it is released next Friday.

Graph showing recent drop in housing starts.We estimate the combined hit to third quarter GDP could be above one full percentage point worth of Q3 GDP growth.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 20.

Key observations:

  • Lost personal income and spending should be highly visible in the real consumer spending measure, where we expect Q3 growth to slow to a 2.2% pace from 3.3% in the second quarter.
  • The drop in housing starts for September suggests more than a 7.0% drop in residential investment in the third quarter, shaving at least 0.3 percentage points off of GDP growth alone.
  • The real takeaway from the report will be how resilient overall U.S. GDP growth continues to be.
  • We estimate Q3 GDP growth at around 2.5% on an annualized basis, just a notch lower than the 3.1% pace recorded in the second quarter.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: More signs of resilience

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing drop in jobless claims.

Initial jobless claims have already returned to pre-hurricane levels in October, implying a strong rebound in payroll growth.

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U.S. Outlook: Light at the end of the tunnel

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in S&P 500 stock price index

The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs decline due to hurricanes & unemployment rate unexpectedly drops

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business owner looking worried as he checks his laptop and waits on the phone in his warehouse.

There was something for everyone in the September jobs report, but we think it wise for investors to look past the downbeat headline job loss.

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U.S. Outlook: Trump tax plan grabbing headlines

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Capitol building, mostly the dome, in morning sunlight.

There are still too many unknowns to get a clear read on winners and losers, or how much of negative impact the tax cut package is likely to have on the federal debt.

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