Daily economic indicators continue to show the second-quarter U.S. economic rebound remains on track. However, beyond this quarter, the economic and policy outlooks are becoming cloudy again.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 19.
- President Trump’s ratings are once again revisiting their lowest levels since he took office.
- Republican lawmakers may be more willing to distance themselves from elements of the president’s tax reform and budget plan — for example, whether to make the tax cuts revenue-neutral or not.
- Measures of stock market volatility and credit risk show a level of complacency that seems oddly out of place with the dire political headlines of the day.
- This week’s events call our GDP 2018 forecast into question and tip the balance of risks more toward the downside than the upside in my view.
We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.Read More ›
The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.Read More ›
U.S. GDP growth sputtered in the first quarter. This was the worst performance from the U.S. economy since the first quarter of 2014.Read More ›
Preliminary signs are that weaker-than-expected data visible in March may be carrying over into April.Read More ›