All Posts Tagged: Scott Anderson

U.S. Outlook: Is tighter monetary policy already beginning to bite?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The September FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed an upbeat assessment of current U.S. economic conditions and the outlook.

Federal Reserve building (Washington DC) at dusk.At the same time, the Fed dismissed the downside risks to the U.S. economy from Hurricane Florence, the China-U.S. trade war, and foreign economic developments as having only a small net effect on U.S. real GDP growth.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 19.

Key observations:
  • It will still be quite some time before we see the impacts that the Fed tightening to date has had on our economic and financial conditions.
  • The September FOMC minutes commented in several places about rising equity prices and loose financial conditions in the marketplace as a vulnerability and risk to financial stability.
  • Interest-rate-sensitive sectors of our economy from housing to auto sales are already slowing in part due to higher interest rates.
  • From my chair, the FOMC dot plot median feels like an economist’s fairy tale.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: On the hunt for a better job

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business man on Wall St. at top of escalator carrying folded newspapers

It is widely known that the U.S. economy is creating new jobs at a rapid pace. Since the expansion started, the economy has added nearly 20 million jobs.

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California Economic Outlook – September 2018

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View of downtown Los Angeles, with semi-crowded freeway in the foreground on a sunny morning.

California’s job creation continues to outpace that of the United States as a whole, a trend that has been firmly in place since March of 2012.

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U.S. Outlook: Bracing for a hawkish FOMC meeting

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Upscale shopping center with empty parking spaces in front.

There are growing signs of moderation in some U.S. economic indicators, such as home sales and prices, but business sentiment and consumer confidence remain high.

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U.S. Outlook: Consumers are on a roll

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowds of shoppers walking in a mall, focusing on their walking legs.

Consumer spending has been robust. But how long can it last?

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