All Posts Tagged: stimulus

U.S. Outlook: Market fears of near-term recession overblown

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

As recently as September when U.S. stocks were hitting new record highs, economic optimism was rampant and, in retrospect, probably overdone.

Busy work environment with stock traders concentrating on their computers.In my view, the markets are once again overreacting.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 14.

Key observations:
  • Yes, the global economy is in what appears to be a synchronized slowdown.
  • Tighter monetary policy and financial conditions, fading fiscal stimulus, and slowing global growth will all conspire to slow down the economic freight train that has been the U.S. economy this year.
  • We forecast another quarter-point rate hike from the FOMC next week, bringing the fed funds target rate to a 2.25% to 2.50% range.
  • A recession may come by sometime in 2020, but this episode of market volatility isn’t it.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Let the tax reform fight begin

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
US Capitol dome seen in middle distance on a sunny fall day with lawn and reddish-leaf trees in the foreground.

We are finally getting some concrete details on the size and shape of the likely tax reform package that is moving through the House.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q3 strategy report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
European Central Bank, Frankfurt

We see emerging markets and smaller companies as a possible opportunity, but we are underweight to those areas in the current environment.

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Investment Insights: Slow your roll

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
View inside busy investment & trading office with several executives on the phone and looking at monitors.

We are still expecting slowing global growth, a muddle through from the Brexit, and central banks yearning for inflation and growth by almost any means necessary.

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U.S. Outlook: A few breaks in the clouds this week

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart showing stock losses in Europe

Financial volatility continues to calm in the aftermath of the U.K. vote.

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