All Posts Tagged: stock market

U.S. Outlook: Trimming our GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Granted, there isn’t a lot of hard first-quarter economic data to hang our hat on at this point. With the U.S. government shutdown entering day 28, more and more important U.S. economic indicator releases are being National monuments and museums in Washington DC were closed during the U.S. governemnt shutdown in 2013.delayed by the shutdown.

Only the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve are still releasing data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Commerce Department have all halted their releases due to the government closure.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 18.

Key observations:
  • We’ve cut our Q1 U.S. GDP forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7, to reflect lost economic activity due to the prolonged government shutdown, as well as lost consumer spending resulting from the negative wealth effects from the Q4 stock market selloff.
  • We are penciling in a 0.3 percentage point hit to GDP from the government shutdown alone.
  • The measurable drop in household wealth will crimp consumer spending, especially for high-income households that are exposed to the stock market volatility.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Dissecting the dots

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View of a eagle statue on Federal Reserve building in DC

Just looking at the Fed’s median forecast gives one a false sense of precision about the future of U.S. interest rates.

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Investment Insights: ‘Just below’

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Diagonal upward view of Federal Reserve building

Jerome Powell’s lunch presentation and speech Wednesday held those two small but significant words, “just below.”

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Investment Insights: The gravy train stops

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Young female broker looking serious on the phone, surrounded by several monitors showing stock market returns.

The same stocks which were the darlings for so much of this historic rally have faltered.

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Investment Insights: Fret or fundamentals?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Photo of oil tanker and rig with stock market figures lightly superimposed over it.

Many investors are worried that the precipitous slide in crude oil prices signals a possible slowdown on a global scale.

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