All Posts Tagged: surprise index

U.S. Outlook: The hard vs. soft data conundrum revisited

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic indicators have been throwing off mixed messages.

Graph comparing hard and soft data of US Economic Surprise Index

In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 14.

Key observations:

  • It may be too late to expect much of any bounce in the hard data indexes from the burst of confidence since November.
  • Confidence measures could correct lower in the months ahead rather than for the U.S. economy to see a strong acceleration in growth.
  • Our GDP growth estimate for Q1 slipped below 1.0% annualized this week.
  • We are currently forecasting a below-consensus rebound in GDP growth in Q2 of 2.4%.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: An early Thanksgiving this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of retail sales in recent months.

Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. economy is dancing to a different beat

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

Just when you thought the economic doldrums would last forever, the U.S. economy is dancing to a different beat.

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U.S. Outlook: The economy is muddling along

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the US Economic Surprise Index

A worsening trade performance and declines in business investment and industrial production have dominated the economic landscape.

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U.S. Outlook: Trouble abroad

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph of US surprise index trending upward in recent months.

On its own, the U.S. economy appears to be on a solid path for growth. But global outlook data suggests there are a few problem spots to watch.

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