All Posts Tagged: surprise index

U.S. Outlook: Fingers crossed, we need a bounce in GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

This morning’s second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.

graph showing drop in G10 Surprise Economic INdexThe revisions increased the headline GDP growth rate to 1.2% annualized in Q1 from an originally reported 0.7% gain.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 26.

Key observations:

  • The May FOMC minutes, released earlier this week, shouldn’t dissuade from further Fed rate hikes or the start of Fed balance sheet reductions before year end. But much depends on a second quarter bounce in activity.
  • Housing, real estate, and personal/household data have missed more regularly over the past month, while retail/wholesale and industrial sectors continue to underperform expectations.
  • If the consumer spending recovery doesn’t materialize, watch out for falling growth forecasts.

Click here to read my full report.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: The hard vs. soft data conundrum revisited

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph comparing hard and soft data of US Economic Surprise Index

In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: An early Thanksgiving this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing rise of retail sales in recent months.

Upside U.S. economic surprises were a common theme this week, helping to support the post-election equity rally and prolonging the Treasury bond market sell-off.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: U.S. economy is dancing to a different beat

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

Just when you thought the economic doldrums would last forever, the U.S. economy is dancing to a different beat.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: The economy is muddling along

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the US Economic Surprise Index

A worsening trade performance and declines in business investment and industrial production have dominated the economic landscape.

Read More ›