All Posts Tagged: tariffs

U.S. Outlook: Emerging markets turmoil returns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Emerging markets turmoil returned with a vengeance this week, and it’s more than a simple “taper tantrum” this time around.

Flea market scene in Argentina, with lots of shoppers milling about.Years of strong portfolio inflows into emerging markets may finally be coming home to roost.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 17.

Key observations:
  • Emerging markets were a logical destination for investors searching for yield in a low-interest-rate world.
  • Economic and fiscal policies in countries like Turkey have made their economies especially vulnerable to a classic balance of payments/currency crisis.
  • The emerging markets financial contagion to date has not yet reached a level that will materially hurt the U.S. economy over the near term or deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again in September.
  • But the contagion could develop into another important headwind for the U.S. and global economies in 2019.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy runs hot in the second quarter

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

GDP growth would have been a lot stronger last quarter if there weren’t a big drop in business inventories.

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Investment Insights: What’s got bond markets in a huff?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Close up on Wall St. street sign, with tourists enjoying the street in summer weather behind it.

Corporate earnings continue to be supportive and a bright spot for financial markets.

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Investment Insights: Don’t eat sour grapes

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Large black marble wall that says "Shanghai Stock Exchange" outside the actual exchange building.

If these added tariffs were to go into effect, the U.S. would be raising import prices on about half of all goods imported from China.

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Investment Insights: Is the grand finale coming?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Multiple fireworks exploding into colorful bursts in a night sky over a California coastal town.

What many are volleying back and forth is whether the financial market is just searching for footing before another leg upward or if this may be a last hurrah before a more portentous drop.

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