All Posts Tagged: Thanksgiving

U.S. Outlook: Thanksgiving comes early this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Rather than a scary October payroll report appropriate for the Halloween season, investors and analysts received an early Thanksgiving surprise.

closeup on palate of food delivered by grocery employee.Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 250K in October, up from 118K in September, and well above the consensus forecast of 200K jobs.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 2.

Key observations:
  • Clearly, there was a strong bounce back from Hurrican Florence baked into October’s job gains.
  • Bad weather prevented 198K people from working last month.
  • The U.S. job growth engine shows no sign of slowing down as yet. This raises the odds of another rate hike from the Fed in December.
  • Low unemployment rates finally appear to be lifting average hourly earnings growth. For the first time in this expansion, the average hourly earnings growth moved above 3.0%.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Will consumers keep spending over the holidays?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing growth, declines in various retail sales categories

The retail sales data through October show a consumer who is ready and willing to spend this holiday season.

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U.S. Outlook: A festive holiday forecast this year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Bar chart showing annual holiday sales growth for the past six years.

Our forecast for holiday sales growth this year is 4.0%, which would make it the best year since 2012.

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U.S. Outlook: The U.S. consumer is doing just fine

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in vehicle sales.

Consumer spending still looks strong despite gloomy Black Friday estimates.

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