All Posts Tagged: trade war

U.S. Outlook: The labor market is hot. Is it getting too hot?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The May jobs report revealed impressive strength and breadth in U.S. job creation that blew away most economists’ expectations.

Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.Employers added 223K non-farm jobs in May — a big step up from April’s 159K gain.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 1.

Key observations:

  • If you remember only one number from today’s report, it ought to be 3.8%, which is the unemployment rate for May and the lowest in 18 years.
  • This labor market tightness is gradually moving the needle on national wage growth, too.
  • From the Fed’s perspective, we are absorbing labor market slack at an impressive pace that is not sustainable without fueling a jump in wage and price growth if it continues in the months ahead.
  • The probability of four rate hikes in 2018 would be a lot higher today if it weren’t for the downside risks in the second half of the year from an escalating trade war.

 

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q1 2018 report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Fortress wall in China with decorative 3-story structure on top.

Volatility, the word that strikes fear into the minds of nervous investors, returned in the first quarter of 2018.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

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Investment Insights: tech, tariffs, and Trump

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Several young professionals sitting on a bench, chatting while looking at various tech devices.

Amid the market’s swings, there have been three themes dominating headlines and moving markets across the globe.

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Investment Insights: Trade war! What is it good for?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
A crowded street with a large group of pedestrians in China.

A potential trade war between the U.S. and China sparked a selloff in global stock markets last week as investors attempted to comprehend the impacts of a tit-for-tat battle in international trade.

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