All Posts Tagged: trade

U.S. Outlook: Keeping next week’s Q1 GDP report in perspective

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Over the last three quarters, the U.S. economy and real GDP have been on a sprint, the latter rising at an annual average 3.06%.

Closeup of a woman's arm using gas pump to fill her silver car on a cold day.So what do we expect to see from next week’s advanced Q1 GDP report when it is released on Friday?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 20.

Key observations:

  • Since WTI oil prices bottomed in January 2016 at $39.56 per barrel and then icnreased more than 70% off those lows through yesterday, U.S. GDP growth has rebounded to a respectable 2.6% year-on-year.
  • The U.S. economy has finally moved back to its potential GDP level as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, raising the risk that further above-trend growth may only fuel rising inflationary pressures from here.
  • We are forecasting a below-consensus 1.7% annualized increase in GDP for the first quarter, down from 2.9% in Q4.
  • Growth is expected to rebound back to 2.6% in the second quarter as consumer spending bounces back and government spending ramps up.

Read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Fasten your seatbelts

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Rollercoaster train, upside down in the middle of a loop, against a clear blue sky.

Even without Wednesday’s market moves, equity markets have been a roller coaster over the last several weeks.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

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Investment Insights: One more plan from the tax man

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
The U.S. Capitol dome at dusk, subtly lit up.

March has not been a month of financial market revival as some had hoped.

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Investment Insights: Is the U.K. the next Singapore?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Traffic scene on London street at sunset, with Big Ben a short distance away.

While it hasn’t seen the same tabloid excitement as the Brexit, the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement has been in the works for over a decade.

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