Mixed messages continue to be thrown off by the U.S. economy, and this week we can add retail sales and consumer inflation for May to the list of economic indicators that continue to disappoint analysts’ expectations.
- The three-month moving average on retail sales is running at about half the pace seen over the past 12 months.
- Inflation is showing signs of moderation after a sharp rebound in the first quarter.
- The combination of a somewhat less dovish Fed and diminishing growth and inflation expectations is compressing the Treasury yield to an extent that rivals the lows of the expansion.
- Bank credit has already tightened for CRE and auto lending, while loan demand has weakened pretty much across all segments.
Uses of big data could extend to cash flow forecasting, foreign exchange, and liquidity planning.Read More ›
The FOMC is preparing the markets for another rate hike before the end of the year.Read More ›
The sharp steepening of the U.S.Treasury yield curve since the beginning of September
deserves some sleuthing.
Financial markets continue to float undecidedly at current levels while trying to digest announcements from central banks and how the global economy is actually faring.Read More ›