All Posts Tagged: Treasury

U.S. Outlook: Fed gambles on inflation’s return

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Mixed messages continue to be thrown off by the U.S. economy, and this week we can add retail sales and consumer inflation for May to the list of economic indicators that continue to disappoint analysts’ expectations.

Chart showing sales growth/loss by category, compared to a year ago.For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 16.

Key observations:

  • The three-month moving average on retail sales is running at about half the pace seen over the past 12 months.
  • Inflation is showing signs of moderation after a sharp rebound in the first quarter.
  • The combination of a somewhat less dovish Fed and diminishing growth and inflation expectations is compressing the Treasury yield to an extent that rivals the lows of the expansion.
  • Bank credit has already tightened for CRE and auto lending, while loan demand has weakened pretty much across all segments.

Click here to read my full report.

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A cash management trend to watch: big data

Eileen Dignen
Cash Management
Scene in a coffee shop with a light overlay of numeric sequences.

Uses of big data could extend to cash flow forecasting, foreign exchange, and liquidity planning.

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Instant Analysis: September FOMC statement and projections

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Shot of the Federal Reserve on a sunny day.

The FOMC is preparing the markets for another rate hike before the end of the year.

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U.S. Outlook: The mystery of the steepening yield curve

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent steep rise in yield curve

The sharp steepening of the U.S.Treasury yield curve since the beginning of September
deserves some sleuthing.

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Investment Insights: Walking the tightrope

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Man on a tightrope over a grassy field at sunset.

Financial markets continue to float undecidedly at current levels while trying to digest announcements from central banks and how the global economy is actually faring.

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