All Posts Tagged: Treasury

U.S. Outlook: Biggest FOMC meeting of the year on tap

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

While the damage from hurricanes Harvey and Irma are still being tallied, we are making some adjustments to our GDP forecasts for Q3, Q4, and Q1 2018.

Graph showing GDP forecasts as affected by recent hurricanes.We expect two-thirds of the lost growth from the hurricanes to be make up in the fourth quarter as economic activity returns and rebuilding begins.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 15.

Key observations:

  • Prior to the hurricanes we were forecasting 3.0% real GDP growth in Q3; we now expect 2.4% in the third quarter.
  • We pushed up our real GDP growth forecast for Q4 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6% from 2.2%.
  • We are calling this the biggest FOMC meeting of the year because of the impact it could have on interest rate and inflation expectations into 2018 and beyond.
  • Bond market inflation expectations remain well below historical norms.

Click here to read my full report.

 

 

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Investment Insights: The Bermuda shuffle

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Hurricane damage showing a tree on the ground, ripped at the roots

With the dissipation of most of the storm risk, the case for safe-haven assets has lost some steam in the current environment.

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U.S. Outlook: Fed gambles on inflation’s return

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart showing sales growth/loss by category, compared to a year ago.

Mixed messages continue to be thrown off by the U.S. economy.

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A cash management trend to watch: big data

Eileen Dignen
Cash Management
Scene in a coffee shop with a light overlay of numeric sequences.

Uses of big data could extend to cash flow forecasting, foreign exchange, and liquidity planning.

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Instant Analysis: September FOMC statement and projections

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Shot of the Federal Reserve on a sunny day.

The FOMC is preparing the markets for another rate hike before the end of the year.

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