There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act.
For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 24.
- Our working assumption is that Congress won’t get around to infrastructure or deregulation until 2018.
- In President Trump’s “skinny” budget for FY2018, 15 of 20 major federal agencies would see budget cuts, three would see increases, and two would be unchanged.
- This skinny budget is in line with our previous assumptions and won’t have an impact on our near-term economic forecast.
- We have scaled back modestly our 2017 forecasts for oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and long-term interest rates.
This weekly report presents insights from our Global Investment Management team. The S&P 500 Index sank 1.23% during trading hours Tuesday, the first daily decline of over 1% since October 11th last year. Markets seem to be reassessing near-term risks as oil slumps and the U.S. dollar continues a precipitous decline that started just over […]Read More ›
The animal spirits that lifted the market to each new high may have hit their limits, as the S&P 500 Index has failed to advance the past few trading sessions and consumer confidence may be starting to lose momentum.Read More ›
Most signs point to U.S. business owners having a good year — though there may be some hiccups along the way.Read More ›
The last couple of months have been like driving your car in a fog. It would be equally dangerous to brake too abruptly as it would be to press down on the accelerator too hard.Read More ›