All Posts Tagged: Trump

U.S. Outlook: Where there is smoke, is there fire?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

There has been much activity in Washington unrelated to tax reform from congressional hearings on Russian entanglements to a delayed House vote on a replacement for the Affordable Care Act.

Busy street view of US Capitol from a few blocks away.Risks that the new administration and Congress could get side-tracked from their tax cut, infrastructure, and deregulation agenda are on the rise.

For more on these developments, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 24.

Key observations:

  • Our working assumption is that Congress won’t get around to infrastructure or deregulation until 2018.
  • In President Trump’s “skinny” budget for FY2018, 15 of 20 major federal agencies would see budget cuts, three would see increases, and two would be unchanged.
  • This skinny budget is in line with our previous assumptions and won’t have an impact on our near-term economic forecast.
  • We have scaled back modestly our 2017 forecasts for oil prices, the U.S. dollar, and long-term interest rates.

Click here to read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Between a rock and a hard place

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Black silhouettes of several male and female executives at a meeting table under a blue global map.

This weekly report presents insights from our Global Investment Management team. The S&P 500 Index sank 1.23% during trading hours Tuesday, the first daily decline of over 1% since October 11th last year. Markets seem to be reassessing near-term risks as oil slumps and the U.S. dollar continues a precipitous decline that started just over […]

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Investment Insights: Animal spirits flying too high?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Upward view of statue depicting an eagle with wings outstretched, with a little bit of the Federal Reserve building (Atlanta) behind it

The animal spirits that lifted the market to each new high may have hit their limits, as the S&P 500 Index has failed to advance the past few trading sessions and consumer confidence may be starting to lose momentum.

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Business growth signs remain in view during 2017

Kristin Nelson
Wealth Management Strategy
3 women business owners in a meeting. one of whom is talking while holding a tablet.

Most signs point to U.S. business owners having a good year — though there may be some hiccups along the way.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our January report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Signposts on a pole pointing multiple directions in a very foggy hike-path intersection.

The last couple of months have been like driving your car in a fog. It would be equally dangerous to brake too abruptly as it would be to press down on the accelerator too hard.

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