All Posts Tagged: U.S. dollar

U.S. Outlook: Light at the end of the tunnel

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity in the fourth quarter.

Graph showing recent rise in S&P 500 stock price indexFactory orders are moving higher, foretelling a solid rebound in U.S. industrial production growth in the months ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 6.

Key observations:

  • The U.S. dollar has weakened about 10% so far this year, making U.S. manufacturing exports more price-competitive in global markets.
  • The ISM manufacturing index hit its highest level since January 2004 in September.
  • The stutter-step we are seeing in the labor market is just a temporary setback that the market and Federal Reserve will largely look past.
  • Don’t be surprised if the hawkish talk from Fed governors continues, and the FOMC goes ahead with another rate hike in December.

Click here to read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our April report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Global stock markets churned during the month of April alongside the ebb and flow of geopolitical risks around the world.

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U.S. Outlook: Interest rates hit the floor

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing global bond yields are near record lows

Today’s low market rates suggest a weaker global economic outlook, looser monetary policy, and more deflationary pressures ahead.

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Instant Analysis: The December jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Employees analyzing data in a business environment

The December jobs report underscores the resilience of the U.S. labor market recovery in 2014.

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U.S. Outlook: Disinflation — what do the tea leaves say?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing fluctuations in the Import Price Index.

Now is a good time to review in more detail what the latest tea leaves are saying about the direction of future U.S. prices.

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