More signs emerged this week that the Goldilocks view of the U.S. economic outlook could be in for a serious challenge in the weeks ahead.
President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports roiled global financial markets yesterday and again today.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 2.Key observations:
- Trump fanned the flames by tweeting, “Trade wars are good and easy to win.” I believe trade retaliation is likely.
- If the stock market was looking for a reason to sell off, this could be the trigger, especially if the U.S. action touches off a serious global trade war.
- We lower our estimate of Q1 GDP to 1.8%, down from a downwardly revised 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
- On the bright side, U.S. initial jobless claims fell to the lowest levels since 1969 last week, bolstering our forecast for February job creation to 215K.
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December industrial production handily beat consensus expectations, increasing 0.9% in December.Read More ›
The hurricanes put a temporary hold on the labor market expansion for September, but the economic data released this week already point to a solid rebound in economic activity.Read More ›
Global stock markets churned during the month of April alongside the ebb and flow of geopolitical risks around the world.Read More ›
Today’s low market rates suggest a weaker global economic outlook, looser monetary policy, and more deflationary pressures ahead.Read More ›