The 138,000 jobs created last month left behind some confusion and uneasiness about the true underlying strength of the U.S. labor market.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 2.
- The U.S. unemployment rate (4.3%) has now dropped by a half a percentage point since the beginning of the year.
- It was the 429,000-person drop in the labor force that pushed the unemployment rate lower last month.
- My take is the FOMC will likely look past today’s less-than-ideal payroll report and move forward with the rate hike in June.
- The fed funds futures probability of a September rate hike from the Fed sank to just 26.4% this morning.
We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.Read More ›
Details of the December payroll report reveal a solid U.S. labor market with plenty of fuel left in the tank.Read More ›
The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.Read More ›
Growing signs of a tightening U.S. labor market were clearly visible in this month’s report, from dropping unemployment rates to rising wages.Read More ›