All Posts Tagged: unemployment rate

U.S. Outlook: ‘You’re hired’ — July jobs report sizzles

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported another all-around solid jobs report for July. The U.S. economy created 209K net new jobs last month, easily beating consensus expectations for 180K jobs.

Graph showing job growth by sector in July.We have now had two consecutive months of 200+ jobs, so I guess you could say the economy is batting a thousand when it comes to the labor market.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Aug. 4.

Key observations:

  • Job gains in July were led by private service providers.
  • The jobs report is strong enough to keep the Fed on course for a September balance sheet reductions announcement, and it will keep a December rate hike from the Fed on the table.
  • Some FOMC members could begin to worry that the labor market is running a little too hot right now.
  • It’s premature to conclude the U.S. economy is breaking out of its 2% trend growth rut, though we do think GDP growth in Q3 will come in closer to 2.6% than 2.0%.

Click here to read my full report.

 

 

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth back on track in June

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart showing growth in various job sectors in June.

Overall this was a solid payroll report that reinforces the notion that the U.S. labor market remains a bright spot for the U.S. economic expansion.

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U.S. Outlook: Job creation disappoints in May

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing month-over-month trends in US job creation.

The 138,000 jobs created last month left behind some confusion and uneasiness about the true underlying strength of the U.S. labor market.

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U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. jobs engine remains intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing year-over-year trend in hourly wages, with recent upturn.

Details of the December payroll report reveal a solid U.S. labor market with plenty of fuel left in the tank.

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