All Posts Tagged: unemployment rate

U.S. Outlook: Job creation disappoints in May

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The 138,000 jobs created last month left behind some confusion and uneasiness about the true underlying strength of the U.S. labor market.

Graph showing month-over-month trends in US job creation.The three-month moving average of job creation slipped to just 121,000. Recent job-creation performance is a clear step down from where we have been.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 2.

Key observations:

  • The U.S. unemployment rate (4.3%) has now dropped by a half a percentage point since the beginning of the year.
  • It was the 429,000-person drop in the labor force that pushed the unemployment rate lower last month.
  • My take is the FOMC will likely look past today’s less-than-ideal payroll report and move forward with the rate hike in June.
  • The fed funds futures probability of a September rate hike from the Fed sank to just 26.4% this morning.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

We haven’t seen these low levels for jobless claims since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. jobs engine remains intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing year-over-year trend in hourly wages, with recent upturn.

Details of the December payroll report reveal a solid U.S. labor market with plenty of fuel left in the tank.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Silhouette of a delivery man and truck at sunset with blue sky in the background.

The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Four businesspeople talking in a busy plaza of a major international city.

Growing signs of a tightening U.S. labor market were clearly visible in this month’s report, from dropping unemployment rates to rising wages.

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