All Posts Tagged: unemployment rate

U.S. Outlook: Job growth cools in July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Nonfarm payroll growth slipped to 157K in July, the slowest pace of monthly job gains since March.

Sun-drenched shot of workers hurrying across a bridge at the start of the workday.Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 3.

Key observations:
  • If job gains continue near the current pace, the U.S. unemployment rate will continue to move lower over the coming months.
  • We are forecasting the U.S. unemployment rate will average 3.6% by the fourth quarter of next year.
  • There is no sign in the July jobs data that the trade war is negatively impacting the U.S. job growth engine.
  • Despite falling short of consensus estimates on headline job creation last month, this is in way a weak labor market or even a weakening labor market.

Read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: June payrolls surprise to the upside, but wage growth disappoints

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

June’s job numbers keep the Goldilocks story of this economic expansion alive.

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California Economic Outlook – June 2018

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Side view of tall concrete bridge spanning two peaks along the coastline of California at sunset.

California’s job creation continues to outperform the nation, but job growth has slowed as more metro areas exceed full employment.

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U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Net new job creation is cooling off.

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U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

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