All Posts Tagged: unemployment rate

U.S. Outlook: More signs of labor market strength & inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The good news on the labor market continued this week.

Graph showing a historically-low trend in four-week jobless claims in the U.S. labor market

The four-week average for initial jobless claims is at a historically low 243.5K. We haven’t seen these low levels since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 12.

Key observations:

  • The job openings rate has been higher than both the hiring and separations rates since the end of 2014.
  • On average, there are 1.2 unemployed persons for every open job today, compared to 5.9 in the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession.
  • Robust inflation and labor market data should have bond investors boosting their odds of Fed rate hikes this year and into 2018.
  • The risk of the U.S. economy overshooting full employment and rekindling inflationary pressures is on the rise.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. jobs engine remains intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing year-over-year trend in hourly wages, with recent upturn.

Details of the December payroll report reveal a solid U.S. labor market with plenty of fuel left in the tank.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for November

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Silhouette of a delivery man and truck at sunset with blue sky in the background.

The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Four businesspeople talking in a busy plaza of a major international city.

Growing signs of a tightening U.S. labor market were clearly visible in this month’s report, from dropping unemployment rates to rising wages.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for September

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Four businesspeople talking in a busy plaza of a major international city.

We believe any monthly gain above 150K is a good number and won’t force the FOMC to deviate from its plan to raise rates again before the end of the year.

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