All Posts Tagged: unemployment rate

U.S. Outlook: China trade war trumps a disappointing jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Investors just received two pieces of news that challenge the sanguine views of the U.S. economy and the economic outlook.

Graph showing hourly earnings growth in March jobs report, by sector.President Trump decided to double-down on his budding trade war with China, and the March employment report came in well below consensus expectations at 103K new jobs.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 6.

Key observations:

  • Investors need to pay close attention to the evolving tit-for-tat tariff retaliation between the world’s biggest economies to divine the ultimate direction of the markets.
  • Neither world power will want to be seen as backing down to the other, which is why we expect some tariffs will indeed be imposed.
  • The bright spot in the March jobs report was the pickup in average hourly earnings growth.
  • Stronger average hourly earnings growth in Q1 suggests a consumer spending rebound this quarter is still far more likely than not.

 

Read my full report.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: What you need to know

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart that shows consumer spending trends.

Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Is the economy accelerating or slowing down?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing different leading indicators for economic performance.

It’s not only the stock market that’s throwing off more mixed signals and increased volatility these days.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: What does 2018 have in store for us?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rebound of Eurozone economic activity

We think 2018 will be another year of above-average U.S. GDP growth.

Read More ›