All Posts Tagged: unemployment rate

U.S. Outlook: What does 2018 have in store for us?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. and global economies are in a real sweet spot now.

Graph showing recent rebound of Eurozone economic activityEurope’s economic acceleration has been an important catalyst for stronger global growth and a bit of a surprise. In the U.S., another 2.1 million net new jobs were created in 2017. So what does 2018 have in store for us?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 5.

Key observations:

  • We think 2018 will be another year of above-average U.S. GDP growth.
  • U.S. consumers will keep growing their spending as real disposable income growth catches up to spending.
  • We see the U.S. unemployment rate averaging 3.9% in 2018, hitting a low of 3.8% by the second quarter.
  • U.S. growth will be sufficiently strong to keep the Fed on track to raise the fed funds rate three more times in 2018.

Read my full 2018 Outlook report.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.

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U.S. Outlook: Positive economic surprises continue

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Bloomberg economic surprise index is at its highest level since March, as U.S. economic indicators have been generally surpassing economists’ forecasts over the past month.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs decline due to hurricanes & unemployment rate unexpectedly drops

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business owner looking worried as he checks his laptop and waits on the phone in his warehouse.

There was something for everyone in the September jobs report, but we think it wise for investors to look past the downbeat headline job loss.

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U.S. Outlook: Job report increases doubts about Fed rate hike path

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent trend in unemployment rate (monthly)

The August jobs report came in on the weak side, raising concerns that the Fed’s gradual tightening path could become glacial in the year ahead.

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