The good news on the labor market continued this week.
The four-week average for initial jobless claims is at a historically low 243.5K. We haven’t seen these low levels since the early 1970s, when the labor market was about half the size it is today.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 12.
- The job openings rate has been higher than both the hiring and separations rates since the end of 2014.
- On average, there are 1.2 unemployed persons for every open job today, compared to 5.9 in the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession.
- Robust inflation and labor market data should have bond investors boosting their odds of Fed rate hikes this year and into 2018.
- The risk of the U.S. economy overshooting full employment and rekindling inflationary pressures is on the rise.
Details of the December payroll report reveal a solid U.S. labor market with plenty of fuel left in the tank.Read More ›
The U.S. unemployment rate now appears to be somewhat below the natural rate of unemployment for the United States, which could aggravate labor shortages in some sectors.Read More ›
Growing signs of a tightening U.S. labor market were clearly visible in this month’s report, from dropping unemployment rates to rising wages.Read More ›
We believe any monthly gain above 150K is a good number and won’t force the FOMC to deviate from its plan to raise rates again before the end of the year.Read More ›